Experts attribute Nigeria’s slow economic growth to low manufacturing and agricultural output.

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Nigeria’s economic growth is expected to be sluggish and marginal in 2025 due to dwindling productivity in critical sectors like manufacturing and agriculture, as well as low investment levels. According to Basil Abia, co-founder and CEO of Veriv Africa, the services sector will drive economic growth but will not generate significant jobs.

Abia predicts that inflation will remain a deciding factor in 2025 but will moderately ease compared to 2024. He projects inflation to average 31.81% in a bull case scenario, 34.52% in a base case scenario, and 37.16% in a bear case scenario. The inflationary pressure will be driven by recurring challenges such as currency depreciation, food inflation due to insecurity, high energy costs, and elevated logistics costs.

To address these challenges, Abia advises the government to adopt critical fiscal policy reforms. “Core goals should include broadening the tax base, incorporating the informal sector through tax digitalisation, and renegotiating the country’s existing debt stock,” he said. He also emphasizes the need for clearer regulatory certainty on energy policies, improved diversification of the economy, tackling worsening insecurity, and leveraging pension funds and municipal bonds.

Abia urges businesses, especially financial services, to prioritize regulatory compliance, risk management, security, and cost discipline. “Fraud is a big issue now, and regulators will double down on regulation this year,” he warned.

Other experts, including Paul Onwuanibe, CEO of Landmark Group, and Olaniyi Yusuf, Chair of the Nigerian Economic Summit Group, echoed Abia’s sentiments. Onwuanibe emphasized the need for businesses to be adaptable and think long-term, while Yusuf stressed the importance of efficient spending and policy execution.

Farooq Oreagba, Managing Director of NG Clearing Limited, highlighted the need for derisking the Nigerian economy and prioritizing foreign investments and partnerships that drive economic development. “We must prioritize foreign investments and partnerships that drive economic development,” he said. “We must derisk the Nigerian economy. Businesses are borrowing heavily, and the government has ambitious spending plans; where is the funding going to come from?”

Olaniyi Yusuf, Chair of the Nigerian Economic Development Summit Group, noted that if the price of crude oil stays steady at $70/80 per barrel, Nigeria’s budget is safe, but if it drops, it will lead to serious economic problems. “In terms of leading indicators, if the price of crude oil stays steady at $70/80 per barrel, Nigeria’s budget is safe, but if it drops, it will lead to serious economic problems,” he said.

Yusuf also emphasized the importance of stable economic indicators, such as the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR). “A stable PMI, MPR, and active construction activities indicate that economic activities are ongoing,” he said.

He urged the government to focus on efficient spending and policy execution. “We already have enough policies, consolidate existing policies, and embrace fiscal discipline. We should be seeing more of policy execution effectiveness and urgently reduce the gap between what is said and what is actually done,” he said.

Ireayogbe Oladunjoye, CEO of Endeavor Nigeria, emphasized the need for businesses to be innovative and adaptable in the face of economic uncertainty. “Businesses must be innovative and adaptable to survive in the current economic environment,” he said.

Joshua Egba, Country Representative (West Africa) of the U.S. Trade and Development Agency, highlighted the importance of partnerships and collaborations in driving economic growth. “Partnerships and collaborations are key to driving economic growth and development,” he said.

Adeniyi Akinlusi, CEO of Lekki Worldwide Investment, representing the Lagos State Commissioner for Commerce, Cooperatives, Trade, and Investment, Folashade Ambrose-Medebem, emphasized the need for businesses to take advantage of opportunities in the state. “Lagos State is open for business, and we encourage businesses to take advantage of the opportunities available,” he said.

The event, which was moderated by Lehle Balde, provided a platform for experts to share their insights and perspectives on the economic outlook for Nigeria in 2025.

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