NESG urges FG to prioritise productivity over Inflation in growth strategy – Reports

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The Nigeria Economic Summit Group (NESG) has urged the Federal Government to anchor its economic growth strategy on productivity rather than focusing primarily on inflation control.

In its latest report on the outcome of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rebasing exercise recently conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the NESG warned that the figures exposed deep-rooted weaknesses in Nigeria’s economic structure.

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“The rebasing of Nigeria’s GDP is more than a recalibration of economic statistics; it is a diagnostic scan revealing deep structural imbalances and fiscal vulnerabilities,” the group said.

According to the NESG, while the upward revision in nominal GDP expands the statistical size of the economy, the real economy—where jobs, productivity, and welfare are determined—remains constrained. “Closing this gap requires a coordinated, multi-pronged policy response that addresses both immediate recovery and long-term transformation,” it added.

The group stressed that sustainable growth must be rooted in value creation. “With real GDP having grown only 4.4 percent since 2019, the priority is to stimulate value-added growth in sectors with high employment multipliers. This means targeted industrial policy, sector-specific competitiveness programmes, and technology adoption in agriculture and manufacturing,” it stated.

NESG called for a state of emergency in the industrial sector, urging the government to address energy reliability, logistics bottlenecks, and rising input costs. It also advised the adoption of blended finance mechanisms, targeted infrastructure tax incentives, and policies to revive the manufacturing, oil and gas, and construction sectors.

On agriculture, the group noted that the sector remains resilient but underutilised. It recommended that the government should “move beyond subsistence, scale mechanisation, expand irrigation, improve rural transport, and build agro-processing hubs to raise productivity, value capture, and export potential.”

The think tank further emphasised the need to integrate Nigeria’s vast informal sector into the growth model. “Design informal sector–centric trade and investment policies, given its resilience and dominance in GDP composition. Pathways to formalisation should be incentivised—easing business registration, extending credit, and providing social protections to micro and small enterprises,” NESG said.

Highlighting fiscal reforms, the group urged the government to resist complacency despite improved GDP ratios. “The rebased ratios should not encourage complacency. Expand non-oil revenue through digital tax systems, broaden the tax net, and enforce compliance. Improve spending efficiency via performance-based budgeting. Deepen financial intermediation to expand credit access and mobilise capital market funding for the real economy,” it stressed.

NESG concluded that Nigeria’s economic future lies in driving productivity, fostering innovation, and strengthening resilience across key sectors, rather than relying on short-term fixes

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