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A number of high-profile defections in recent weeks have heightened tensions in Nigeria’s political landscape and are changing the course of the race for the vital general elections in 2027.

Reactions from influential political leaders like Abdullahi Ganduje, Atiku Abubakar, and Umar Damagum are giving clear early indications of impending battle lines, from the seismic political swings in Delta State to the strategic defection of Kawu Sumaila.

PDP’s stronghold under siege

A number of prominent politicians switched to the All Progressives Congress (APC), causing a major political tremor in Delta State, which has historically been a Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) stronghold.

Among those who defected were active lawmakers and grassroots activists who expressed discontent with the PDP’s state and federal leadership.

The main causes were the increasing internal strife, claims of candidate imposition, and unresolved power-sharing conflicts.

In addition to weakening the PDP’s grassroots networks in the Niger Delta, experts say this wave of defection has boosted the APC’s attempts to gain ground in areas that were previously thought to be unreachable.

Sani Abdullahi, a political expert based in Kano, said, “For a region vital to national elections because of its voter population and oil revenue, these defections could affect future calculations heavily.

The move of Kawu Sumaila

Last Monday, prominent Kano State politician AbdulRahman Kawu Sumaila, a former top assistant to President Muhammadu Buhari, formally defected from the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) to the APC.

Given his significant influence in Kano South, many Kano citizens saw Sumaila’s defection as a serious setback to the NNPP’s aspirations.

His decision, according to individuals with knowledge, was a calculated reassessment based on the changing political landscape and the circumstances surrounding the 2027 elections rather than an act of rashness.

Senator Suleiman Abdulrahman Kawu Sumaila’s Senior Special Assistant on Media and Publicity, Abbas Adam Abbas, told ZINGTIE that the APC has no worries about excluding former NNPP mainstays in favor of more senior party members.

According to Abbas, “Look at the magnitude of developmental projects in his area and how he is loved by his constituents. The APC would definitely not sideline him in the coming elections.”

He underlined that the Senator’s popularity and the positive impact he had on his constituency made him a significant political asset for the APC, and that the NNPP had lost a great leader in Sumaila.

Ganduje’s answer: A warning victory lap

Abdullahi Ganduje, the APC’s national leader, quickly portrayed Kawu Sumaila’s defection as evidence of the party’s increasing popularity across the country.

As a former Kano governor, Ganduje characterized Sumaila as a “grassroots general” whose appointment will strengthen the APC in Kano and elsewhere. Ganduje was quick to warn against complacency, though, stressing that inclusion must be given in return for political commitment or else it could plant the seeds for future defections.

According to analysts, Ganduje’s grasp of the brittle coalitions that characterize Nigerian politics is reflected in this dual message, which was not missed on party members.

Atiku’s response: A shattered PDP tries to find stability

One of the PDP’s top leaders, Former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, reacted quickly to the Delta defections.

In a public statement, Atiku promised measures that would “heal divisions and restore the confidence of Nigerians,” acknowledging the internal grievances but urging party members to remain united.

Although Atiku’s response was accommodative, it also revealed the PDP’s growing dilemma, according to Audu John, a prominent PDP member from Benue.

He said, “His call for patience and restructuring suggests that the party is aware of looming dangers but is struggling to present a coherent, convincing roadmap to its foot soldiers.

“With Atiku almost certain to contest in 2027, every defection now weakens his prospective presidential base,” he said.

Using caution when handling crises

Umar Damagum, the acting national chairman of the PDP, responded to the events of the week in a cautious and nearly tactful manner.

He blamed “external manipulations” for the defeats rather than directly confronting the defectors, even though he denounced the defections as betrayals.

Damagum’s tactful approach suggests that the PDP leadership is attempting to stop its ranks from further leaking.

According to party insiders, discreet efforts at reconciliation are being made behind the scenes, particularly in Delta and Kano.

However, if promises of internal reorganization do not come to fruition right once, the seeming lack of a firm hand may encourage those who are thinking about defecting.

Elections in 2027: Initial tremors due to changing alliances

Ibrahim Hassan, a Kano-based journalist and political commentator, told ZINGTIE that the political ploys of the last few weeks are not unique occurrences but rather “they are early tremors signaling deeper realignments ahead of 2027.”

“In the South-South, APC’s gains in Delta could signal a broader push to erode PDP’s dominance in the oil-rich region, traditionally a kingmaker in presidential elections.

“Meanwhile, in the North-West, Kano remains a political prize, and Sumaila’s move suggests APC’s strategy to consolidate early in the region.

“For PDP, the defections are a warning bell. Without urgent internal reforms and power rebalancing, the party risks entering the 2027 race weakened from within.

“For APC, the gains are encouraging but come with the heavy task of managing the diverse ambitions of its new entrants’” he sounds.

Nigerian politics have attained a stage when 2027 is considered in every gesture, handshake, and word.

Only those who are well-prepared will weather the impending storms, and the race has already unofficially begun.

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