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The World Bank Country Director for Nigeria, Dr Ndiame Diop, has highlighted the significant implications of Nigeria’s rapidly growing working population, expected to reach 100 million in the next 25 years. Speaking at the University of Ibadan’s distinguished personality lecture series, Dr Diop emphasised that this demographic shift presents a unique opportunity for Nigeria to become a major driver of economic growth, not only in Africa but globally.
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Dr Diop noted, “Nigeria faces a significant demographic shift: approximately 5.5 million Nigerians enter the labour force each year, and its working-age population is expected to grow by about 100 million in the next 25 years.” This rapid increase presents a unique chance for Nigeria to become a major player in the global economy, considering the ageing populations in East Asia and Europe.
However, realising this potential hinges on Nigeria’s ability to generate millions of additional productive and formal employment opportunities for its increasingly educated and tech-savvy young people. Dr Diop highlighted the substantial challenge of creating quality jobs, citing that in 2019, only about 8% of employed youth in Nigeria held formal jobs
“Nigeria’s economy needs to not only grow at a faster pace but also undergo a transformation,” Dr. Diop said. “This transformation must accelerate the movement of workers from low-productivity, low-paying, and often informal jobs to more productive and higher-paying positions.”
Dr Diop emphasised the vital role of agricultural transformation in strengthening the overall competitiveness of the economy. “While individual worker or entrepreneur capabilities contribute to labour productivity, the reality is that average productivity levels vary considerably across sectors, with agriculture typically having the lowest levels in developing countries. When at least one-third of the workforce is engaged in agriculture, boosting agricultural productivity becomes paramount for poverty reduction,” he said.
“Creating such a large number of quality jobs is a substantial challenge,” Dr Diop noted. “In 2019, only about 8 per cent of employed youth in Nigeria held formal jobs. Notably, African nations tend to create significantly fewer formal jobs per unit of GDP growth compared to other regions, generating roughly half the number seen in East Asia.”
“This low proportion of workers in formal sectors, and the resulting dominance of informal, low-productivity work, explains why securing employment in most African countries doesn’t guarantee an escape from poverty. In fact, in many African nations, including Nigeria, the majority of workers do not earn enough to reliably enter or remain in the middle class,” he added.
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