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Comercio Partners has projected Nigeria’s rebased inflation rate to fall between 15% and 20% in its base-case scenario, with a mid-point estimate of 17.5%. The investment bank expects the inflation rate to drop further to between 20% and 25% due to the absence of strong catalysts. In it’s most optimistic position, Comercio Partners predicts the inflation rate could fall between 10% and 15%, a significant drop from its current rate of 35%.

According to the bank’s 2025 Macroeconomic Outlook, the reduced weight of the food basket, a key driver of inflation growth, supports the forecast of a significant drop in inflation. The report highlights that inflation trends, exchange rate stabilisation, and fiscal expansion will shape Nigeria’s macroeconomic landscape in 2025.

Other trends to watch include policy adjustments, expansion in local refining capacity, recalibrated GDP, and improved external reserves. Comercio Partners notes that the expansion of local refining will significantly reduce the impact of exchange rate movements on energy prices. 

“The stabilisation, coupled with more predictable exchange rates, will likely lead to lower production and transportation costs, generating a positive ripple effect throughout the broader economy,” the report states.

The bank expects Nigeria to sustain its positive balance of payment position, driven by improved local crude refining and a strategic shift towards self-sufficiency in petroleum products. Comercio Partners also believes that the introduction of the Diaspora Account for Non-resident Nigerians will contribute to a more stable FX market.

While predicting a stronger naira in 2025, Comercio Partners expects the currency to close between N1700 and N1800 per dollar in the first half of the year. However, the bank notes that coordinated efforts by the monetary and fiscal authorities could sustain the current naira appreciation and bolster the economy’s resilience.

In a related development, Ifeanyi Ubah, Head of Investment Research and Global Macro Strategy at Comercio Partners, predicts that headline inflation will decrease to around 15% in the first half of 2025, indicating a gradual return to economic stability.

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