The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has released its May 2025 Inflation Expectation Survey, revealing that high energy costs are the primary driver of inflation in the country. According to the report, 90.8% of respondent firms ranked energy costs, including expenses on petrol, diesel, and electricity, as the top factor contributing to inflation.
The CBN noted that despite its tight monetary policy, with the monetary policy rate currently at 27.5%, inflation is still driven predominantly by supply-side pressures. “Respondents (businesses and households) identified energy, exchange rate, and transportation as the top three inflation drivers,” the report read.
The survey also found that:
– 88.5% of firms cited the exchange rate as the second most significant factor influencing inflation.
– 87.2% of firms identified transportation costs as the third-highest driver.
– 85.5% of firms believed interest rates are a major contributor to inflationary pressure
The CBN report highlights that both businesses and households consistently identify energy, exchange rate, and transportation as the top three inflation drivers. The survey also revealed that:
– 75.3% of all respondents believed the current inflation rate was high.
– 79.6% of households described inflation as high, up from 69.4% in the previous month.
– 71.5% of businesses also described inflation as high, compared to 70.5% in April.
Looking ahead to June, the outlook remains cautious, with:
– 43.1% of households expecting inflation to rise.
– 29.7% of businesses expecting inflation to increase.
– 68.9% of respondents preferring a reduction in interest rates.
The CBN report reinforces the argument that Nigeria’s inflation crisis is driven by persistent structural bottlenecks, rather than solely by excess demand or monetary expansion.
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