The recent political realignment involving former Labour Party presidential candidate, Peter Obi, and former Kano State governor, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, has continued to stir debate across Northern Nigeria, as uncertainty grows over how voters in the region will respond to their reported move into the Nigeria Democratic Congress.
While party leaders describe the development as a step toward building a united opposition platform, reactions in the North remain mixed, with analysts and residents divided on whether the alliance will strengthen or weaken its appeal in the region.
Recall that on Sunday, both Peter Obi and Kwankwaso formally joined the NDC in Abuja.
At the party’s national secretariat, NDC national chairman, Cleopas Moses Zuwoghe, presented membership cards to both politicians as they officially aligned with the opposition platform.
Speaking at the event, Kwankwaso said their decision followed extensive consultations with NDC stakeholders, noting that they discovered strong ideological alignment.
“We came to discuss with the NDC stakeholders about the party and its ideology, and we realised that our beliefs are similar,” he said.
On his part, Obi stated that the party is focused on rebuilding Nigeria and restoring confidence in governance.
“This party would form a government that will rebuild Nigeria and ensure Nigerians live without fear,” Obi said.
He also urged party members to avoid internal disputes and litigation, stressing the need for unity within the platform.
“Let there be no litigation. Party members, please don’t go to court. We are not lawyers. We don’t want to spend our time on litigation,” he added.
It would be recalled that both leaders defected from the African Democratic Congress, citing internal crises as the reason for their exit and subsequent move to the NDC.
The Kwankwasiyya movement has described the NDC as a more stable political platform ahead of the 2027 general elections, citing ongoing internal crises and legal battles within the ADC.
Speaking in an interview, the movement’s spokesperson, Habeeb Saleh Mohammed, said the decision was necessary to avoid uncertainties that could affect their chances in the next election.
“Well, I think first to be clear is that, like I told you, there are pending issues in ADC,” he said.
“And remember, we left our political party, NNPP, simply because of that external pressure and the internal issues we have or rather, an induced internal issue.”
Mohammed explained that similar challenges that affected their former party, New Nigeria Peoples Party, are now troubling the ADC, making it difficult for the party to function effectively.
“This is a party that has multiple court cases. Even when there was an opportunity to clear all the issues at once, the case was referred back to the lower court, and it may still go to the Appeal Court and even the Supreme Court.”
He added that the limited timeframe before elections makes it risky to remain in a party entangled in legal disputes.
“Looking at the timeframe, I don’t think ADC will effectively be able to manage that particular case,” he added.
He further revealed that the ADC is facing additional legal threats, including a case seeking its deregistration.
“Outside this one, we have another case where the party itself is being asked to be deleted by INEC. We also have another case questioning the legitimacy of the leadership.”
According to him, these uncertainties have compelled the movement to seek a more stable political platform.
“For anybody who wants to offer Nigerians an opportunity to have a platform and an alternative political party, there is a need to look for a safer platform, one that does not have internal crisis or legal issues,” he said.
On potential alliances, Mohammed suggested that a joint ticket involving Obi and Kwankwaso could promote national unity.
“The best ticket you can have is to have Peter Obi and Kwankwaso on the same ticket. It will promote fairness and national unity.”
He added that such an arrangement may not face strong resistance in the North.
“I believe northerners are wise enough to take a rational decision. It is not just about where someone comes from, but about competence,” he said.
Mohammed also emphasised that members of the Kwankwasiyya movement remain loyal to their leader and will support any decision he makes.
“Kwankwasiyya members believe in the ability, capacity, and judgment of our national leader. We are always at home with whatever he decides.”
He cited Kwankwaso’s political influence as evidence of his leadership strength.
“We have seen what he did with NNPP when nobody knew about the party. He made it strong, especially in Kano and other states like Bauchi and Taraba,” he said.
He concluded that the movement is focused on choosing a platform with minimal risk of disruption ahead of the elections.
“We are looking for a platform that does not have problems now. If anything comes up later, we will deal with it at that time.”
He also noted that the NDC is still in its early stages of development, with its leadership structure still evolving.
“Take NDC for example, it is a brand new party. We do not have even the complete leadership structure; the leadership structure is just evolving now. For somebody to even come and say he has a claim, we are going to be part of maybe the process building that structure,” he said.
Responding to concerns that the ruling APC could destabilise emerging parties like the NDC, Mohammed suggested that current political timelines may limit such interference.
“Well, like I said, we believe the federal government has made it a duty to ensure that no political party survives,” he said.
However, he added that the current timeline may work against such efforts.
“But presently, I think we have to work with what we have. Is the time really not against them now?”
He explained that with limited time to meet electoral requirements, including submission of membership lists, the ruling party may be preoccupied.
“When you have just less than three or four days to submit the list of registered members, and also do not have enough time to continue to intimidate or create discord in a party, especially when elections are around the corner,” he said.
He added that the APC would also be dealing with its own internal processes, reducing its focus on opposition parties.
“I think they are going to be overwhelmed also with their own internal activities now that they are trying to sort out members that will emerge as their flag bearers,” he said.
A public affairs commentator, Mahdi Shehu, criticised the political moves by Obi and Kwankwaso, warning that their defection to the NDC may not guarantee electoral success against the APC.
Speaking in an interview, Shehu said their frequent movement across political platforms suggests they may be overestimating their political strength.
“Obi and Kwankwaso’s monthly pilgrimage and migration from one unregistered club, up to another association in turmoil, then to another non-existing platform seems to be overrating their popularity,” he said.
He argued that the political realities that shaped the 2023 elections have since changed.
“The votes distribution and sentiments of 2023 have been altered by changing dynamics. They seem to be pushing their luck too far,” he added.
According to him, the realignments appear more focused on gaining political leverage than building a formidable opposition.
“They are looking for a bargaining power where their hope is for other opposition blocs to reach out to them,” he said.
He warned that such a strategy could backfire if other opposition groups align with the ruling party.
“If care is not taken, one of the groups can easily reach out to APC, negotiate a power-sharing formula and reduce Obi and Kwankwaso into political and democratic lepers,” he warned.
Shehu stressed that unity among opposition leaders remains the only viable path to defeating the APC.
“Harmony in-between the strong opposition leaders is the only winning formula. Anything short of that is called a political gamble,” he said.
Using local expressions, he added: “Casino, kalo-kalo, modi and cha-cha.”
ZINGTIE gathered varied reactions from residents, with opinions sharply divided on the development.
A Kano resident, Lukman Shuaibu, expressed strong support for Kwankwaso, stating that his leadership style benefits grassroots communities.
He said he would remain loyal regardless of party affiliation.
“I will continue to follow him wherever he goes from NNPP to ADC and now NDC. He has the interest of the people, especially those at the grassroots, at heart,” he said.
Similarly, another Kano resident, Naziru Dalhatu, described a possible Obi-Kwankwaso ticket as one that represents national unity rather than regional interests.
He said, “The Obi and Kwankwaso ticket is not about bringing the North alone. It is about representing every part of the country.”
Dalhatu argued that the current economic and political situation could favour any strong opposition alliance.
He said, “In the present condition of the country, even a ticket made up of people who are not as strong as Obi and Kwankwaso could still defeat the current government because of its failure in many sectors.”
He added that Nigerians are more focused on change than political differences.
He said, “Nigerians are going through very difficult times. Everything has become worse, and people are only interested in removing the current government.”
Dalhatu expressed confidence that the alliance could lead to a new government.
“I strongly believe that the combination of Obi and Kwankwaso as candidates is the ticket that will defeat the current government and bring a new government in Nigeria.”
He also claimed that the NDC is rapidly gaining popularity across the country.
He said, “I read in a report that in less than three days, over ten million people registered in the NDC.
“At the moment, there is no political party as popular as the NDC, where people are rushing to join.”
Dalhatu further suggested that lawmakers may soon defect to the party.
“In the coming days, you will be surprised to see senators and members of the House of Representatives joining this party.
“I am confident that the Obi and Kwankwaso ticket will defeat the current government and bring positive change and development to Nigeria.”
However, a youth in Jigawa State, Muhammad Rabiu Musa, questioned the credibility of the alliance.
According to him, the duo does not present a convincing alternative to the current administration.
“I think the very question ringing in most young minds is what will Obi and Kwankwaso alliance do differently from the incumbent if elected into office?” he said.
He argued that the alliance lacks a clear strategy for addressing governance challenges.
“Because they don’t have a clear blueprint and implementation strategy that will ensure a total overhaul of the current tide of poor governance in the country,” he added.
Musa further alleged that the political move appears driven by personal ambition.
“It’s crystal clear that they’re after serving their interest rather than that of the poor,” he said.
He also raised concerns about identity politics, particularly in northern Nigeria, noting that religious and ethnic sentiments could affect their chances.
“In addition, the religious and ethnic lines being preached among the younger and, of course, the aged, particularly in the core northern states, will make it difficult to sell a ticket that may likely bring an Igbo presidency,” he said.
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