The Impact of Dangote Refinery’s Maintenance on Nigerians Fuel Market

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The Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s recent maintenance-related output reduction has led to an increase in West African import demand, with the region relying on European supplies to meet its needs. According to S&P Global Commodities at Sea data, gasoline imports to Nigeria and Togo have surged, reaching over 300,000 barrels per day in March and around 250,000 b/d in April.

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A Dangote executive recently stated that the refinery is restarting its main gasoline unit, the residue fluid catalytic cracker (RFCC), after a four-week turnaround to address “design issues.” The executive added, “The real picture can be seen only when we open the equipment.” The company is yet to determine whether a second maintenance will be necessary later this year.

The RFCC unit had reached 70% of its capacity before the outage and is now expected to ramp up to its full capacity, allowing the refinery to scale crude throughput to its full 650,000 barrels per day potential. During the outage, the refinery relied solely on its 120,000 bpd reformer to serve local gasoline demand

Market sources have reported restricted access to gasoline cargoes and LPG during the outage, but more supplies have been made available since May 12. Despite the challenges, the refinery has maintained steady exports of gasoil, jet fuel, and residual fuel.

The Dangote Group had beaten analyst expectations by commissioning the RFCC and bringing its first gasoline to market in September 2024. However, the unit has suffered repeated outages in 2025, delaying expectations for its operations to stabilise.

According to S&P Global Commodity Insights forecasts, a June RFCC turnaround at the refinery would support global gasoline cracks by roughly $3/b. Meanwhile, Togo has become an increasingly important channel for Nigerian imports, with traders drawing growing volumes to the offshore Lome market.

Market sources attribute this trend to financial incentives, including reducing tax exposure and continuing purchases in US dollars, as the Nigerian government pushes for companies to transact in naira. Soft freight costs have also aided strong flows to West Africa, with the Clean Long-range UKC-West Africa rate assessed at $22.68/mt on May 12, down from $28.25/mt the previous year.

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