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Nigeria’s headline inflation rate rose to 24.23% in March, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), despite signs of economic recovery in other areas. The increase is largely driven by rising prices of essential food and non-food items, further straining the finances of millions of Nigerians.

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According to the NBS report, inflation continues to accelerate, putting pressure on household incomes and the broader cost of living. However, there are glimmers of hope, including a slight slowdown in food prices and a 7% dip in petrol costs. Additionally, Nigeria’s crude oil production climbed by 1.96% in February 2025, exceeding its OPEC+ quota and offering a potential boost to the naira.

Economist Bismarck Rewane, CEO of Financial Derivatives Company Limited, said, “A stronger oil sector could mean more stable fuel prices and a boost in government revenue.” He also noted that consumer spending is showing early signs of recovery, with the consumer confidence index improving in February 2025

The Economic Intelligence Unit (EIU) projects a 4% rebound in retail sales in 2025, with consumer spending expected to recover modestly to $127 billion. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has also taken steps to bring inflation down, halting its policy rate tightening cycle in the first meeting of the year.

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Charlie Bird, Director of Trading at Verto, said factors such as rising crude oil prices, oil price stability, strong dollar liquidity, and stable foreign reserve data portend positive signals for the economy and will impact positively on inflation data. Despite the challenges, many Nigerians are holding out hope for exchange rate and price stability in the coming months

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