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As the 2027 general elections approach, President Bola Tinubu seems to find himself in a difficult situation, particularly when it comes to securing the block votes from Rivers State.

The President must decide between two options: to align with Nyesom Wike, the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), or with Siminalayi Fubara, the Governor of Rivers State.

Wike, who belongs to the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, is currently one of Tinubu’s top ministers in the All Progressives Congress, APC government, while Fubara has switched from the PDP to the APC as a strategic move to strengthen his grip on power.

Governor Fubara’s emergence as Rivers State governor in May 2023 was widely seen as a continuation of Wike’s beliefs, given that the minister single-handedly brought him to power.

The two men’s disagreements escalated quickly, characterized by accusations of misgovernance, control over state resources, and political sabotage.

Other than the widely held view that President Tinubu’s declaration of emergency rule and suspension of democracy in 2025 aimed to protect Fubara from impeachment by Wike’s loyalists in the Rivers State House of Assembly, nearly all other decisions have benefited the FCT Minister.

During the six months that retired Vice Admiral Ibok-Ete Ibas served as Rivers State’s sole administrator, Wike’s allies solidified their influence, restructured political systems, organized local government elections that resulted in the appointment of the Minister’s supporters as leaders of all LGAs, and further diminished pro-Fubara factions.

Other reports, however, suggest that the emergency rule ironically revitalized Fubara’s political prospects by stopping the impeachment process and setting the stage for his return.

Fubara was reinstated as governor after the six-month military-style governance ended in September 2025.

In keeping with political realism, he promised allegiance to both President Tinubu and Wike, indicating a tactical peace rather than complete political reconciliation. However, the Governor subsequently made a choice that analysts characterized as a political setback for Wike when he switched from the PDP to the APC.

His departure and political realignments carried more than symbolic weight; they marked a shift aimed at securing his political survival and relevance in the face of changing power dynamics.

However, it has elicited a response from Wike’s camp, particularly after he was referred to as the leader of the APC in the State by associates of the FCT Minister.

Meanwhile, Wike has minimized Fubara’s perceived importance within the APC. The PDP state leader Wike maintains that Fubara’s defection alone does not qualify the governor as the APC leader in Rivers, asserting that party influence is based on grassroots control rather than titles or registration timing.

Recently, the Rivers State House of Assembly made a decision to impeach both Governor Fubara and his deputy, Ngozi Nma Odu.

Additionally, they have delivered the impeachment notice to him.

Despite the absence of an official presidential statement, there are assertions that the President has stepped in and halted the ongoing process.

In what seems to provide a clearer understanding, President Tinubu’s Special Adviser on Policy and Communication, Daniel Bwala, confirmed the President’s backing of Fubara. He emphasized that the governor should be allowed to perform his responsibilities without unnecessary interference.

Bwala, in an appearance on Channels Television’s Politics Today programme, acknowledged the contributions of Nyesom Wike, the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, calling him instrumental to the Tinubu administration.

He did clarify, though, that Wike is not part of the APC.

He added that, notwithstanding political differences, Governor Fubara should be allowed the space to govern Rivers State, stressing the President’s commitment to democratic principles and effective governance.

Nonetheless, the key question leading up to the general elections has been: who does Tinubu need most in order to secure a victory in Rivers State?

Tinubu must navigate intricate considerations when selecting allies who can secure votes, bring stability to turbulent areas, and bolster the APC’s presence throughout Nigeria.

In a conversation with DAILY POST regarding this matter, Dr. Adetokunbo Pearse—an influential figure and chieftain of the PDP in Lagos State, as well as a member of the 2023 PDP National Presidential Campaign Council—asserted that it would be imprudent for the President to avoid collaboration with the Governor, who manages the state’s resources.

He said, “Ahead of 2027, President Tinubu has been doing all he can to capture River State first by taking advantage of the quarrel between Wike and Fubara to institute a state of emergency.

“And now, after the state of emergency, both Tinubu and Wike find themselves in a dilemma. They are now compelled to use all sorts of tricks to force Fubara to join APC.

“So Fubara is now in APC. Wike is supporting APC, but the issue is that the people of River State are with PDP. Fubara is genuinely PDP because he was voted into office by PDP, not by Wike, and not by Bola Ahmed Tinubu and not by APC.

“So the people of River State remain with PDP, and there is nothing the president or Wike can do to get the people to vote for APC. That is the dilemma they are in. And I wish the people of Rivers State good luck. I wish them the spirit of democracy so that they can vote for who they want.

“So whether Fubara stays in APC or not, we know that Fubara is only one man, and the people of River State put him there as governor. And the people of River State are PDP and they voted for him as PDP.

“If I were the president, certainly I would go with Fubara, because he is the only person that was elected by the people in 2023 not Wike. And Wike now is a liability in Abuja, as well as in River State, because he wants to control River State.

“He doesn’t want Tinubu to control Rivers State. That is his problem. That is Wike’s problem. So naturally, if I were the president, I would not go with a man who is trying to go against all my desires. The problem is Wike keeps causing wahala for President Tinubu in Rivers State.

“So, I think what is going on in Rivers State now is an indication that the political alliance between Wike and Tinubu is over.

“Wike deserted the position that Tinubu gave him in the FCT. He left the job that he was supposed to be doing in FCT and is going to River State to cause confusion.

“So naturally, I don’t think the President will be working with Wike. He will be working more with Fubara, but no matter what they do, APC is not going to take River State in 2027 because the people are not with either of them.”

Reminded of how Wike helped the President win Rivers State in 2023, Adetokumbo added, “The presidential election was rigged. Their figures were all manipulated. Look, all the senators, PDP, all the House of Representatives- PDP, all the Assembly members- PDP, how did the people now vote for the President and for APC?

“It was just Wike’s manipulation; the way he manipulated INEC to give the result of the presidential election to Tinubu so that he will have a voice. That is how he managed to get the position of FCT.

“Look at him now, the people voted for who they wanted to vote for. That is PDP. Now the President is going to try, of course, they’re going to try to rig it in 2027, for the President, be it Wike or Fubara, whoever.

“The President himself is going to try to rig it for himself. That is why he wants to be in control of Rivers. But I guarantee you, this time round the PDP, we are not going to stand by, even if we have to call in international observers to decide the case. We want a true and credible election whoever wins in any state.

“We want that result to be credited to the person that wins, the party that wins. So all that rigging they did in 2023, we are already planning and we are going to count it out in 2027, it will not happen again.”

Dr. Sani Abubakar, a leading political analyst, also addressed our correspondent regarding the issue, declaring: “Without any second thought, he should go with the state governor. Now he controls the state resources, the state party machinery, and he’s the man on ground.

“Even discussing that the same man is trying to control or manipulate activities in Rivers is an aberration. So what is good for the goose is good for the gander. The same way the President would relate with other states governors, why would he not do the same in Rivers?

“We see how he related with other state governors that were either the APC governors or governors that were in other parties, and when they come to APC now he’s directly related with them.

“I give you a specific example, with Delta State. When Sherif moved to the APC, the President directed that every other person is under him, including ex-vice-presidential candidate, Ifeanyi Okowa and Omo-Agege. Everybody followed the governor. Why wouldn’t they do the same in Rivers?”

When inquiring whether this action would pose an issue for the President’s 2027 re-election campaign, given the common perception of Wike’s significant role in his 2023 election victory, Sani stated, “Excuse me, he did not do anything for the President. He only helped him rig out the Labor Party. Wike is not really as popular.

“They just rigged the Labour Party out, and to my mind, this was what transpired. And then, you know, and the violence he used to intimidate voters from coming out to vote, then they invited people and manipulated or diverted the vote of the Labour Party.

“Apart from that, I think people are exaggerating about Wike. The fact that the President has even weighed into this thing and said that the governor should be allowed to run the show, says it all.

“And whatever you are thinking that Wike is this, or is that is just these resources that he controls. and he is fighting the governor because of the resources, because without the resources of that State, who would follow him?

“If he loses out in the control of the state and if the governor is the one calling shots and controlling the resources nobody will follow Wike. That is just what this thing is all about. It has nothing to do with the lives and welfare of the ordinary man in Rivers.

“The President is getting information from his flow cycle that this is somebody that you can’t satisfy. Wike is someone who is addicted to creating conflict and trouble, and for the fact that he is just concentrating to fight the governor, he has to rope in the national secretary of the APC, indirectly, the chairman of the APC, even the National Security Adviser. He is a liability.

“The next person this man would suddenly fire bullets on is the President. He is a liability. And I think everybody is now on a consensus level that Wike is the liability. They would rather go with the governor.”

In the meantime, the FCT minister continues to believe that he has robust connections at both the ward and local government levels, which are essential for political mobilization.

He also keeps a certain degree of influence in the South-South.

Some critics, however, contend that Wike’s political approach creates divisions and exacerbates internal party rifts, potentially driving away independent voters.

Moreover, the Governor’s recent switch to the APC has bolstered the party’s foothold in Rivers and enhanced its local appeal.

It demonstrates the governor’s allegiance to the President’s national initiative as well.

However, some political analysts believe that the President’s best strategy is to balance the strengths of both men rather than to choose one without reservation.

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