The African Democratic Congress (ADC) is presently grappling with a leadership crisis, as rival factions continue to assert control of the party in the lead-up to the 2027 general elections.
The conflict revolves around Nafiu Bala and a competing camp led by former Senate President, David Mark, both claiming legitimate authority over the party’s national structure.
Tensions intensified last week after the Mark-led faction declared the expulsion of Nafiu Bala, along with other members such as Leke Abejide and several party officials, during its 8th National Convention held in Abuja.
The faction maintained that its actions were consistent with the party’s constitution, but Bala rejected the convention, describing it as unlawful and not recognised by either the law or the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
Speaking to journalists in Abuja on Friday, Bala insisted that those who announced his expulsion lacked the legal authority to do so, arguing that they are not even recognised members of the party.
“Our suspension is nullity. These individuals are not even members of our party, so they lack the locus to take such decisions…We will fight it to the last point”, he said.
Amid the ongoing crisis, another internal contest is emerging within the David Mark-led bloc over who will ultimately secure the party’s presidential ticket.
Although no formal declaration has been made, political alignments are already forming around influential figures.
This development follows remarks by former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, who in a recent interview with Arise News dismissed claims that other northern aspirants could rival his political strength, asserting that he remains the most popular among contenders.
He also expressed optimism about a coalition framework that could either produce a consensus candidate or lead to a primary election.
The situation is further complicated by the increasing political positioning of other prominent figures, including Peter Obi, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, and Chibuike Amaechi.
Supporters of Peter Obi have consistently stated that their candidate remains committed to a president-or-nothing stance within any coalition arrangement.
Meanwhile, ongoing political realignments have seen Obi sustain a close working relationship with former Kano State governor, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, further shaping expectations around a possible alliance.
Earlier this week, supporters of Obi and Kwankwaso unveiled a new political pressure group known as the Obi–Kwankwaso Movement.
Adding to the tension, Dumebi Kachikwu, the ADC’s 2023 presidential candidate, described current presidential aspirants within the party as desperate politicians, accusing them of placing personal ambition above national interest during a press briefing in Abuja.
These developments highlight deepening divisions within the ADC, as internal disputes, coalition negotiations, and individual ambitions converge ahead of the 2027 elections.
2027: Kwankwaso open to any role that ensures victory – Aide
The spokesperson of the Kwankwasiyya Movement, Habibu Saleh, has stated that Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso is prepared to accept any role, including a potential vice-presidential position, if it guarantees opposition victory in the 2027 elections.
Saleh made this known during an exclusive interview with DAILY POST on Monday, where he addressed ongoing coalition discussions and reacted to comments by Atiku Abubakar concerning Kwankwaso’s political influence.
He explained that Kwankwaso’s focus is not on personal ambition but on ensuring that the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and President Bola Ahmed Tinubu are voted out of office.
“My principal has made it very clear to us all that we are joining this coalition simply to ensure that we contribute in any way possible to remove this present government of APC and Bola Ahmed Tinubu from power, so that democracy can survive and the nation can be saved.”
He added that Kwankwaso has been working behind the scenes to build alliances and strengthen the opposition base.
“He has been creating alliances, bringing people together and doing everything necessary to ensure that the party succeeds in its fight. He is ready to make the necessary sacrifice to achieve that goal.”
On the question of whether Kwankwaso would accept a vice-presidential role, Saleh stated that the former governor is open to any arrangement that ensures success.
“Be it that he is going to be given a slot as vice president or at whatever capacity, I believe that will work for the success of the coalition and the ADC.
“If he evaluates the arrangement and sees that it will bring victory and allow the party to succeed, my principal will take it. What matters most is success for Nigerians and for democracy.”
Kwankwaso bigger than Kano politics – Spokesperson insists
Saleh also responded to Atiku’s assertion that Kwankwaso’s influence is limited to Kano, describing the claim as an understatement.
“It is a serious understatement for anybody to say that the relevance of my principal is only in Kano. The figures from the last election clearly show otherwise.”
He noted that Kwankwaso secured significant votes beyond Kano despite running on a relatively less established platform.
“He got about 906,000 votes from Kano, but he also got about 500,000 votes from other parts of the country. And remember, he contested on a relatively unknown political party.
“He did not enjoy the support of any incumbent, no governor, no House of Representatives member, not even a councillor. He also did not have elite backing or strong party structure.”
According to him, this performance reflects genuine grassroots support.
“For any candidate that can deliver his own state under such conditions, it shows real connection with the people and strong political credibility.”
Saleh also compared Kwankwaso’s outing with Atiku’s earlier presidential contest.
“When Atiku contested as a sitting Vice President, with the support of the then ruling structure, he got about two million votes, which was around six percent.”
“Kwankwaso, contesting for the first time without holding any major office, also got about six percent. So, you can put that into perspective and make your judgment.”
North-North ticket not likely
On the possibility of a joint ticket involving Atiku and Kwankwaso, both from Northern Nigeria, Saleh dismissed the idea as unrealistic.
“I don’t think that is realistic. We must be sensitive enough to present a ticket that reflects balance between North and South.”
“A same-region or same-religion ticket will only divide the country and hurt democracy. What Nigerians want is fairness and inclusiveness.”
He noted that this is why many Nigerians have expressed interest in a Kwankwaso–Peter Obi ticket.
“That kind of ticket is an easy sell. It can bridge the gap of mistrust and bring Nigerians together.”
Gov Yusuf’s defection has not weakened Kwankwaso – Spokesman
Responding to claims that Kwankwaso now shares Kano’s political influence with Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf, Saleh insisted that the Kwankwasiyya Movement remains strong.
He recalled that even former governor Abdullahi Umar Ganduje once left the movement with a large number of loyalists, yet it remained resilient and eventually regained political strength.
According to him, despite losing key figures in the past, the movement reorganised and returned stronger, a trend he believes will repeat itself.
“On paper, it may look like that, but history has proven otherwise. We have been in this situation before.
“At a point, we didn’t have a councillor, a lawmaker or even a political appointee, yet we came back stronger and took over power again.
“We are even more organised now, and I can assure you, it will not be business as usual. We will do even better than before.”
He further suggested that internal divisions within the ruling structure in Kano could work in Kwankwaso’s favour.
“The current political arrangement in Kano is not well managed, and even within the APC and the government, there is no proper alignment.”
Saleh reiterated that Kwankwaso’s priority is building a formidable coalition capable of winning in 2027, rather than pursuing personal ambition.
“What matters is removing this government and giving Nigerians a better alternative. My principal is ready to play any role that will make that happen.”
He added that perceptions about Kwankwaso’s influence may stem from limited understanding of his political journey.
“Maybe some people do not fully understand the political journey of Kwankwaso. But we are confident that the reality will speak for itself.”
ADC can defeat Tinubu if Atiku, Obi, Kwankwaso unite – Analyst
Political analyst Hassan Ibrahim has said the ADC stands a strong chance of defeating President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in 2027 if Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso set aside their ambitions and work together.
Speaking in an exclusive interview with DAILY POST on Tuesday, Ibrahim said such unity is achievable only if lessons are learned from the 2023 elections.
“I think it is possible that they can manage their ambition if and only if they have learned a lesson from the past,” he said.
He recalled that in 2023, all three politicians were initially in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) but failed to reach an agreement, leading to a split that weakened the opposition.
“Their inability to manage their ambition was the single reason that led to them going their separate ways. Atiku remained in PDP, Obi moved to Labour Party, while Kwankwaso went to NNPP to contest.”
According to him, this division paved the way for Tinubu of the APC to secure victory.
“If Atiku, Obi and Kwankwaso had managed their ambition and formed a coalition, they would have easily defeated APC. That failure to unite was the major reason APC won.”
He referenced the 2023 election results to support his position.
“Atiku got about 6.9 million votes, Obi had over 6.1 million votes, and Kwankwaso got about 1.4 million votes. If you add these votes together, you will get over 14 million votes, which is far higher than Tinubu’s 8.7 million votes.”
“Even if it was just Atiku and Obi, their combined votes would have been about 13 million, which is still more than what Tinubu got.”
The analyst also linked the PDP crisis to the choice of running mate, noting that Atiku’s decision to pick Ifeanyi Okowa over Nyesom Wike triggered internal divisions.
“Wike felt aggrieved because he was expecting to be chosen as running mate. That led to anti-party activities which affected PDP’s chances.”
ADC must resolve leadership crisis before 2027 – Ibrahim
Ibrahim warned that before focusing on defeating Tinubu, the ADC must first address its internal leadership disputes.
“ADC currently has three blocs claiming leadership. You have the David Mark bloc, Nafiu Bala Gombe bloc, and Dumebi Kachikwu bloc. The party must resolve this crisis and present a united front that INEC will recognise.”
He stressed that without unity within the party, any coalition effort would be unsuccessful.
Atiku, Obi, Kwankwaso must drop ego to win 2027 – Ibrahim
He further noted that personal ambition remains the greatest barrier to any alliance, recalling how a proposed Obi–Kwankwaso alliance collapsed in 2023.
“The issue was who becomes president and who becomes vice president. Obi wanted to be the presidential candidate, while Kwankwaso was not ready to be his running mate.
“So the question now is: can Kwankwaso agree to be Obi’s vice president, or can Obi step down for Kwankwaso? They must answer that question.”
He added that without compromise, history could repeat itself.
“They have to lower their ego and ambition. If they don’t, they are indirectly giving Tinubu a second term on a platter of gold.”
Who has the strongest base?
On which of the three has the strongest political base, Ibrahim said it depends on how strength is measured.
“If you are talking about national spread, Atiku Abubakar has the strongest base.”
He explained that Atiku secured victories in 12 states across four geopolitical zones in 2023, demonstrating wide national appeal.
“Atiku is the only one who won states in the North-East, North-West, South-West and South-South. That shows wide national appeal.”
However, he noted that Obi commands the strongest regional support.
“Peter Obi is very strong in the South-East and parts of the South-South and North-Central. His support is massive, especially among youths and Christian communities.”
Regarding Kwankwaso, he said his strength lies primarily in Kano and the North-West.
“Kwankwaso has a very loyal following, especially in Kano. He got almost one million votes from Kano alone, and Kano is very important in any presidential election.”
2027: Failure to manage ambition may hand Tinubu easy victory
The analyst concluded that any alliance involving two of the three candidates could pose a significant challenge to Tinubu in 2027.
“An Atiku-Obi ticket will be very strong because Atiku brings national spread while Obi brings strong regional support.”
“Even an Obi-Kwankwaso ticket can defeat Tinubu because Obi will bring votes from the South, while Kwankwaso delivers Kano and the North-West.”
He cautioned that failure to unite would once again benefit the ruling party.
“If they refuse to unite, then it means they are giving Tinubu an easy path to win again in 2027.”
Ibrahim concluded by stressing the need for a different approach this time.
“They must learn from 2023. If they repeat the same mistake, they should expect the same result.”
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