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Nigeria has relinquished its long-held position as Africa’s largest importer of refined petroleum products, with South Africa now taking the lead, according to a new report from energy consultancy CITAC. The report attributes this shift to the ramp-up of operations at the Dangote Petrochemical Refinery, which began large-scale production in early 2024.

The refinery’s rising output is sharply reducing Nigeria’s dependence on petrol imports. According to CITAC, Nigeria imported 3.1 million metric tonnes of refined petroleum products in the first quarter of 2025, while South Africa brought in 4.2 million metric tonnes over the same period.

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“Nigerian imports are dropping as a result of the continued operation of Dangote,” said Elitsa Georgieva, Executive Director at CITAC. “Since the beginning of this year, South African imports have been consistently the highest in sub-Saharan Africa.

The report estimated that Nigeria’s total refined fuel imports for 2025 will fall to 6.4 million tonnes, less than half of South Africa’s projected 15.5 million tonnes. “The Nigerian market has undergone major product flow changes since mid-2023. The long-awaited 650 kb/d Dangote refinery near Lagos began operations in January 2024, steadily ramping up throughput and streaming secondary units throughout the year,” the report explained.

The Dangote refinery has become a major source of petroleum product offtake, ramping up to 550,000 barrels of refining capacity per day. Meanwhile, South Africa’s dependence on foreign fuel is deepening due to a sharp decline in its refining capacity.

“South Africa’s infrastructure is mature, but its refining shortfall is now attracting foreign traders who can bridge the gap,” said an industry executive involved in the Shell divestment talks.

Analysts say Nigeria’s reduced import dependency could support the naira, relieve pressure on foreign exchange reserves, and narrow trade deficits. The shift also has fiscal implications for the government, which has historically spent heavily on subsidising imported fuel.

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Swiss-based oil trader Mocoh has undergone a strategic overhaul as the Dangote refinery reshapes fuel supply dynamics across West Africa. “In early 2025, we saw a paradigm shift,” said Olivier Lassagne, Mocoh’s new CEO. “We lost most of our petrol trade with NNPC, but that’s pushed us to grow beyond our traditional niche and reposition for the future.”

Mocoh has found new footing by partnering with Dangote to export surplus fuel to regional markets. “Dangote values flexibility and market pricing. They aren’t tying themselves down with exclusive partners,” Lassagne said, adding that Mocoh is positioning itself as a nimble regional player.

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