Nigeria’s Inflation rate declines for 4th month as experts project sustained deceleration

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Nigeria’s inflation rate has declined for the fourth consecutive month, with the July 2025 Consumer Price Index showing a slide to 21.88% from 22.22% in June. Analysts have projected a sustained deceleration in inflation in the near term, citing the ongoing harvest season, exchange rate stability, softer energy prices, and the base effect.

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According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the food inflation rate in July 2025 was 22.74% on a year-on-year basis, while core inflation slowed to 21.33% in July from 27.47% a year earlier. Month-on-month, core inflation fell to 0.97% from 2.46% in June.

Experts at Afrinvest said, “We expect inflation to maintain a gradual easing trajectory in the near term, supported by continued FX stability, early harvest inflows, and relatively subdued global commodity prices.” However, they noted that persistent food supply constraints and seasonal factors could limit the pace of disinflation

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria is expected to maintain its cautious stance, with Meristem analysts anticipating that “given persistent month-on-month pressures, we anticipate the MPC will retain a cautious monetary policy stance at its next meeting to keep inflation expectations anchored.”

Comercio Partners expressed concerns about the potential impact of the new 4% Free On-Board charge introduced in August, which may lead to increased inflationary pressures. “The new charge increases the landing cost of goods at the ports, and this higher cost could eventually pass down to consumers through higher prices.”

Overall, while analysts project a continued decline in inflation, they also highlighted potential risks and challenges that could limit the pace of disinflation

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