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The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has raised it’s global oil demand forecast for 2026, citing expectations of higher demand and tighter market conditions. In it’s monthly report, OPEC estimated that world oil demand will rise by 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026, up 100,000 bpd from the previous forecast.

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The cartel also trimmed its estimate for growth in supply from the United States and other producers outside the OPEC+ group, pointing to a tighter market. “Economic data at the start of the second half of 2025 further confirm the resilience of global growth, despite persistent uncertainties related to U.S.-centred trade tensions and broader geopolitical risks,” OPEC said.

OPEC’s forecast for world economic growth was also slightly increased to 3.0% this year, driven by outperforming economies in India, China, and Brazil. The agency’s demand forecast is at the higher end of the industry range, reflecting it’s expectation of a slower energy transition compared to other forecasters like the International Energy Agency.

The report also showed that OPEC+ raised crude output by 335,000 bpd in July, slightly less than the 411,000 bpd hike called for by the group’s increase in its July quotas. OPEC expects U.S. output of tight oil to decline by 100,000 bpd in 2026, citing sustained capital discipline and weaker momentum in drilling activities.

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Overall oil supply from countries outside OPEC+ is expected to rise by about 630,000 bpd in 2026, down from the previous forecast of 730,000 bpd. The U.S. is still expected to be a driver of this growth, but OPEC now expects U.S. total oil output to rise by about 130,000 bpd next year, significantly lower than its previous forecast of 510,000 bpd

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