David Akachukwu
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Prince Adewole Adebayo, the Social Democratic Party (SDP) presidential candidate in the 2023 election, has stated that President Bola Tinubu inherited a deeply mismanaged economy from former President Muhammadu Buhari, but has yet to accurately diagnose the core problems facing the country’s financial system.
Adebayo likened the economic situation passed on from Buhari to a critically ill patient in an emergency room — one whose condition has been stabilised, but whose underlying illness remains undetected.
According to him, while President Tinubu has taken measures to prevent the economy from collapsing completely, he has not identified the root cause of the issues. As a result, the economy is neither recovering fully nor collapsing outright.
In a recent interview, Adebayo addressed a range of national matters, including the government’s current tax initiatives, his views on the Tinubu administration’s handling of economic policies, and how he would have approached tax reforms if he were in charge. He also commented on Atiku Abubakar’s warning about a possible uprising due to rising hunger in the country.
Commenting on remarks by former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Yakubu Dogara — who recently claimed that Tinubu inherited a “dead baby” in the form of the economy — Adebayo said it’s evident that Buhari left behind an economy in disarray. He maintained that like a patient in critical condition, the economy’s revival depends entirely on an accurate diagnosis.
He pointed out that although Tinubu has managed to bring a level of stability, his approach so far shows no clear understanding of the economy’s core dysfunctions. Some of Tinubu’s early decisions, Adebayo argued, may have even worsened the situation before marginal improvements were seen in specific areas.
He acknowledged three developments under Tinubu’s leadership that appear positive on the surface:
- Increased Revenue: The administration has managed to generate more revenue — at least on paper. Additionally, the level of domestic borrowing, which was significant under Buhari, has declined. However, due to flawed policies, the available funds still lack the purchasing power to meaningfully impact infrastructure and government projects.
- Inflation Recalculation: Inflation figures have been adjusted due to a change in the method of calculation. While the government reports a drop in inflation — for example, from 21.7% to 20.7% — this shift does not necessarily reflect an actual improvement in economic performance. The revised metrics may paint a more favorable picture, but the true impact will become clearer once the 2025 national budget is rolled out.
- Slight Decline in Food Inflation: Although there has been a reported decrease in food inflation — a major part of the inflation index — the change hasn’t significantly benefited the average Nigerian. Using an analogy, Adebayo explained that the cost of food may have come down slightly, but it’s still far from being within reach of most households.
He emphasized that despite these developments, the average Nigerian is yet to experience real relief, as most changes have occurred in data, not in daily living conditions.
Prince Adewole Adebayo observed that while recent economic indicators suggest some marginal improvement compared to the previous year, the overall economic situation remains significantly below acceptable levels.
He pointed out that although inflation has eased slightly, it remains alarmingly high when compared to other African nations. Citing regional comparisons, he noted that Nigeria currently holds the fourth-highest inflation rate across various benchmarks. Neighboring countries like Benin Republic report inflation rates just above one percent. Within the ECOWAS zone, especially countries using the CFA franc, inflation figures are even lower, with Senegal recording the highest among them due to heavy national borrowing.
He added that in other African nations — including Tanzania, where economic dynamics are increasingly similar to Nigeria’s — inflation is just around 3.3 percent. South Africa and Morocco, both key economic players on the continent, are recording rates below five percent.
By contrast, Nigeria’s inflation stands at 20.7 percent, a figure that, while better than previous months, is still far from signaling real economic recovery. He argued that inflation would need to fall to around seven percent before the country could begin to discuss meaningful progress.
According to Adebayo, more attention must be given to strengthening the real sector of the economy. He warned that if current trends continue, the Naira could depreciate further to approximately ₦1,430 per dollar by Christmas. While this projection does not indicate a healthy economy, it may provide some stability for planning purposes.
He explained that if the exchange rate stabilizes, it could reduce the panic-buying of foreign currency and possibly encourage investors and savers — particularly those holding value in foreign exchange — to begin reinvesting in local assets. This shift, though minor, could bring short-term relief.
However, he emphasized that the long-term solution lies in a well-implemented national budget. Referencing International Monetary Fund (IMF) assessments, Adebayo highlighted that Nigeria’s inflation is largely caused by poor infrastructure. Enhancing the country’s infrastructure, particularly in transportation, would lead to lower logistics costs, which in turn would reduce food prices, boost productivity, and leave more money in the hands of citizens — thereby offsetting the impacts of stagnant wages.
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He concluded by stressing the importance of focusing on sectors like agriculture, infrastructure, and job creation to build a sustainable economy. While acknowledging the contributions of figures like Yakubu Dogara, he urged a more grounded and practical approach to rebuilding the economy — one that prioritizes long-term growth over short-term statistics.
Dogara also said N22.7 trillion was printed and injected into the economy through ways and means by the Buhari administration; ways and means that made the CBN look like a joke, thereby destroying the value of the Naira in our pockets. What was the National Assembly doing when those kinds of things were happening?
Prince Adewole Adebayo has pointed out that many of the public figures now making confessional statements about Nigeria’s economy are the same individuals who assumed power in 2015. According to him, the situation can be viewed from two angles: as an economist, one might objectively analyze trends without assigning blame; but from a political economy perspective, the individuals currently criticizing past failures are the same actors responsible for them.
Reflecting on Nigeria’s economic past, Adebayo recalled practices during the Abacha era — such as the Ajaokuta debt swaps — where significant funds were lost. He noted that each administration has had its own mechanisms for mismanaging resources. During the Jonathan presidency, crude-for-petrol swaps were exploited, alongside irregularities in forex management and security spending.
In Buhari’s tenure, dual exchange rate policies were abused, with forex allocations often given to insiders who then resold them for personal profit. Adebayo claimed that many individuals who were central to those schemes remain active in the current administration. While the present government claims to be steering clear of such practices, he believes they’ve simply replaced them with other forms of self-serving policies.
Speaking on the pattern of governance, he said, “Maybe, when the next government comes, we’re going to start talking about what they are doing as well.”
Rather than focusing on replacing one form of misconduct with another, Adebayo emphasized the importance of evaluating whether the economy is being governed effectively. In his view, the answer is no.
He stressed the need for a shift in how monetary and fiscal policies are handled. Commending steps taken by CBN Governor Yemi Cardoso, Adebayo highlighted the importance of the Central Bank maintaining a strict focus on its core responsibilities: stabilizing the Naira, managing inflation, and avoiding involvement in deficit financing or manipulation of government accounts.
With a more disciplined central bank, he said, Finance Minister Wale Edun would be forced to take fiscal policy more seriously. This includes improving government revenue collection without depending on Central Bank interventions. He credited Tinubu for being more aggressive in revenue generation than Buhari, but added that this isn’t a major achievement, as Buhari’s administration performed poorly in that area.
Nonetheless, he acknowledged that this is a step forward — even if the country is still far from achieving efficient revenue generation. He noted that when Nigeria’s revenue collection is compared to its GDP, the numbers reflect significant inefficiency.
On the issue of budgeting, Adebayo criticized the lack of transparency and alignment with the constitutional directive principles outlined in Chapter 2 of the Constitution. However, he conceded that the current administration has shown slight improvements over the previous one. Under Buhari, ministries often operated independently and failed to implement budgets meaningfully.
He also took aim at the National Assembly, which, despite being composed largely of returning lawmakers from Buhari’s era, now acts as though it was never part of past failures. Adebayo highlighted that, toward the end of Buhari’s tenure, the legislature should have initiated impeachment proceedings over illegal spending practices.
He referred to the infamous “ways and means” borrowing — an unauthorized ₦22.7 trillion debt — which he described as outright theft. Instead of holding the government accountable, the National Assembly retroactively approved it, effectively legalizing the act.
He argued that these decisions were not driven by national interest, but by politics and self-preservation. Consequently, while President Tinubu may be attempting to plug financial loopholes that he and his allies previously created, the focus now should be on transitioning to a governance model that fosters genuine economic development.
According to Adebayo, this shift must prioritize employment generation, infrastructure development, and lowering inflation and unemployment to single digits. He concluded by stating, he is committed to pushing for a serious national conversation on how to build a strong, sustainable economy — one grounded in structural reform, transparency, and long-term growth.
Looking at the graphs and figures recently released from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), do they represent hope for better days ahead in Nigeria? What should Nigerians picture in their minds in the next few weeks or months?
Prince Adewole Adebayo has explained that economics is broadly divided into two key areas — macroeconomics and microeconomics — and both must be considered when evaluating the success or failure of national policies.
He described macroeconomics as the big-picture view, which includes government efforts to manage inflation, public spending, interest rates, and national economic indicators like GDP. Using an example, he said if two trailer-loads of rice were delivered to Channels TV in Abuja, that would represent a macro-level event. But whether a staff member like Seun ends up receiving a full bag or just a handful (mudu) of rice — that’s the microeconomic perspective.
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Adebayo stressed that while it’s important for the government to manage the economy at the macro level, what truly matters to ordinary Nigerians is whether those improvements translate into real changes in their daily lives. For that to happen, there are only two viable approaches:
- Job Creation and Living Wages
The government must foster an environment where people can access employment opportunities and earn decent wages that allow them to meet their basic needs. - Lowering the Cost of Living
Public policies can also create economic relief through cost reductions in essential services — like transportation and housing. For instance, if transport costs are cut significantly, people will have more money left at the end of the month. If affordable housing is made accessible and only consumes around 10% of household income, the benefits of economic progress are directly transferred to citizens.
However, Adebayo criticized both the current administration and public figures like Yakubu Dogara for focusing too much on macroeconomic statistics while ignoring the realities facing households — what he called the “microeconomics of affordability.”
He acknowledged that some positive developments have taken place, such as reduced borrowing, a drop in fuel importation thanks to the Dangote Refinery, and a temporary increase in food availability due to harvest season. Still, he warned these gains might not last beyond the season, and long-term change will only come if government spending is targeted toward generating employment.
He emphasized the need for accountability in this area, stating that government reports should always include data on job creation. In his view, employment is the most tangible proof that the economy is improving for ordinary Nigerians.
According to Adebayo, only when a working citizen can confidently say, “My living conditions have improved because of sound economic policies,” will the government truly be on the right track. That improvement might come through a son or daughter finding work, or through reduced prices that allow families to save — but without those outcomes, government officials and analysts might as well be speaking about an entirely different country from the one most Nigerians live in.
He added that regardless of Dogara’s praise for President Tinubu’s tax strategy — which has reportedly led to revenue reaching ₦14.27 trillion — what really matters to citizens is how those gains affect their daily lives. In other words, “the microeconomics of the whole game is what concerns the average Nigerian.”
So, judging from what he said, do you think President Tinubu deserves a thumb-up in some specific areas, such as the tax reforms?
Prince Adewole Adebayo has remarked that President Bola Tinubu’s well-known background in tax administration, even before public office, is clearly reflected in his current fiscal policies. Drawing from his experience managing revenue collection in Lagos State, Tinubu has brought a more structured and coordinated approach to tax policy at the federal level. Adebayo acknowledged that this represents a notable improvement over the chaotic system the administration inherited.
However, he cautioned against exaggerating the impact of the reforms. Referencing recent praise by Yakubu Dogara, Adebayo argued that while the changes are positive, they’re being oversold. According to him, it’s important to consider not just the raw figures, but their actual value in today’s economy.
He explained that although the government has reported collecting ₦14 trillion in tax revenue, its real-world value has been significantly eroded by inflation and economic instability. In terms of purchasing power, he said, this ₦14 trillion is worth even less than the ₦7 trillion collected in previous years.
Despite his critiques, Adebayo emphasized that having a leadership team that understands the tax system is a step in the right direction. Still, he believes his own tax policy — which he would implement if elected — would be more just, efficient, and productive.
According to him, the goal of taxation should be to drive productivity and economic expansion, not to burden citizens to the point where they cut spending, halt investment, or exit the economy entirely. Over-taxation, he warned, stifles job creation, discourages enterprise, and leads to economic contraction.
He also noted that without reinvesting tax revenue into critical areas like infrastructure and emerging industries, the economy won’t grow — and in fact, may shrink. He stressed that GDP growth must outpace population growth, otherwise no amount of tax collection will stabilize the country’s financial future.
Addressing recent warnings from former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Adebayo referenced concerns that the country is approaching a tipping point. Atiku had recently likened the economic hardship and rising hunger across Nigeria to the conditions that sparked the Arab Spring. He warned that the #EndSARS protest could pale in comparison to what might occur if urgent steps aren’t taken to address widespread poverty and insecurity.
Adebayo echoed the urgency, noting that without real investment in people’s lives — job opportunities, food security, safety — the government risks triggering a deep public backlash. The current direction, he suggested, must shift toward inclusive growth and long-term stability.
Do you think Atiku’s analysis of the situation aligns with the realities of the average person in Nigeria?
Prince Adewole Adebayo has addressed the growing concerns around the current state of Nigeria’s economy and the increasing hardship faced by the average citizen, stating clearly that while the situation is far from ideal, it should not be interpreted as a justification for any form of uprising or revolution.
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According to him, the solution lies not in radical disruption, but in policy reform and leadership accountability. “If anyone comes to me today and says, ‘Let’s do a revolution in Nigeria,’ I’ll say, ‘Don’t do anything like that. Just make simple changes,’” he said.
He emphasized that the best course of action is through democratic means — by voting for better leadership and demanding more from the current administration before the next elections. He stressed that while President Tinubu has taken some steps, his efforts have not been sufficient, especially in terms of urgency and impact.
Rather than illegality or constitutional breaches, Adebayo argued that the administration’s shortcomings are rooted in underwhelming and incomplete policies. The priority, he said, should be identifying these policy gaps and improving them — not attempting to dismantle the system altogether.
He further added, “Our problems are not difficult to solve… What you need is a more accountable government, a government that is more responsive and smarter in the management of our resources.”
If given the opportunity, Adebayo said he would introduce tax reforms that are more growth-oriented, with the aim of pushing GDP growth to at least 12% — a rate he believes is necessary to reduce widespread poverty meaningfully.
He referenced Brazil’s Workers’ Party as a model of how investing in citizens, particularly the youth, can drive national development. Unfortunately, he observed that the current federal budget does not reflect such priorities. Rather than focusing on empowering Nigerians, he said, the budget resembles the austerity-driven models of countries like Argentina — cutting spending without addressing grassroots participation in the economy.
He argued that Nigeria’s real economic potential lies in the untapped energy and skills of its unemployed youth. Therefore, the government must create the kind of budget that opens up opportunities for employment. “By the time we get people employed, former Vice President Atiku will not see anybody to join his revolution. People will be at work, working,” he asserted.
When asked what he would do if he were in President Tinubu’s position at this mid-point of the administration — particularly with election campaigns on the horizon — Adebayo acknowledged that his priorities would differ sharply from the current government’s.
He admitted that Tinubu is focused on revenue generation, which is commendable, but criticized the quality of the revenue figures. In his view, the rise in revenue is more a product of inflation than of true economic expansion.
His approach, he explained, would place more emphasis on the social sector, an area he believes the current administration has largely overlooked. Adebayo stated that Tinubu appears reluctant to invest in crucial areas such as housing, education, agriculture, healthcare, and food systems — viewing them as costly and low-return.
But without investment in these sectors, he warned, the economy cannot grow, nor can jobs be created. Adebayo insisted that genuine development requires strategic spending in infrastructure, transport, public health, and education — the pillars of any productive economy.
He concluded with a direct message: “We need to go. I hope that this government is listening.”
Although the IMF predicted a 3.4 percent growth in the economy, we’ve experienced a GDP growth of 3.13 percent. We’re also seeing a decline in the inflation rate, so if there is an active and real effort in driving it further down, we might just achieve single-digit inflation, as some of those who are in government have said, do you agree with that assertion?
Achieving a single-digit inflation rate is merely the beginning of the economic recovery process — a foundational step, not the final goal. Other nations have maintained such rates successfully, and while it’s a positive sign, it shouldn’t be mistaken as a full solution.
As Prince Adewole Adebayo explained, “It’s like saying the temperature of the patient has come to normal. It doesn’t mean he’s cured of the fever, but it’s a good start.” In essence, it means conditions are stabilizing enough for more deliberate planning and implementation both in terms of the overall economy (macro) and at the household level (micro).
This, he emphasized, should be the moment where the government begins truly serving those who entrusted them with power. He concluded with a hopeful message: “I hope for a better Nigeria.”
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