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As Governor Abdullahi Sule’s tenure approaches its final stretch, Nasarawa State is heading towards a governorship election that could have implications far beyond determining his successor.

The 2027 contest may also decide the future of an informal political arrangement that has influenced debates over power sharing in the state for many years.

Zoning has emerged as one of the major issues surrounding the election, with political actors divided over whether the next governor should come from Nasarawa West or whether aspirants from every part of the state should be allowed to compete freely.

Those backing rotational politics believe 2027 provides an opportunity for power to return to Nasarawa West, which last produced a governor when Abdullahi Adamu completed his second term in 2007.

Opponents of the arrangement, however, argue that neither the Constitution nor any law requires political parties or voters to reserve the governorship for a particular senatorial district.

Caught between the two positions are the voters, whose choices at the ballot box could determine whether zoning remains influential in managing political succession or gives way to other considerations such as competence, popularity, party affiliation, performance and grassroots support.

Nearly three decades of power sharing

Since the return to democratic rule in 1999, each of Nasarawa State’s three senatorial districts has produced a governor.

Abdullahi Adamu, who is from Nasarawa West, became governor in 1999 and remained in office until 2007.

He was succeeded by Aliyu Akwe Doma of Nasarawa South, who governed the state from 2007 to 2011.

Tanko Al-Makura, also from the southern part of the state, defeated Doma in 2011 and served until 2019.

The governorship subsequently shifted to Nasarawa North following the election of Abdullahi Sule in 2019.

Sule secured a second term in 2023 and is expected to complete eight years in office in 2027.

It is this history that zoning advocates rely on in arguing that Nasarawa West should produce the next governor.

The demand has become more pronounced, particularly among political actors from the district who point out that the West has been absent from Government House for almost two decades.

Former governor and former National Chairman of the All Progressives Congress, APC, Senator Abdullahi Adamu, has also spoken about an understanding among political stakeholders to rotate power as a way of promoting fairness, stability and peaceful coexistence.

Despite the political significance attached to the arrangement, it remains an informal political understanding rather than a constitutional requirement.

No provision of the Nigerian Constitution mandates Nasarawa State to rotate the governorship among its three senatorial districts.

Consequently, while zoning can influence party decisions and voter attitudes, the final decision remains with the electorate.

Sule backs Nasarawa West

Governor Sule has made his position on the zoning debate increasingly clear.

He supported the movement of the APC governorship ticket to Nasarawa West and later endorsed Senator Ahmed Aliyu Wadada as his preferred successor.

Sule announced his choice in April 2026 after what he described as extensive consultations with stakeholders within and outside the state.

According to the governor, the process involved assessing the ability of potential candidates to win the election before the choice was eventually narrowed to Wadada.

The endorsement significantly changed the political calculations surrounding the succession battle.

It brought together two powerful arguments in Nasarawa politics: the demand for rotational fairness and the influence of an incumbent governor over his party’s succession strategy.

Wadada subsequently emerged as the APC governorship candidate.

His emergence means the ruling party will contest the election with a candidate from the senatorial district whose political leaders have been particularly vocal about producing Sule’s successor.

Whether that advantage will be enough to secure victory at the general election, however, remains uncertain.

Zoning faces opposition

The campaign for power to return to Nasarawa West has not received universal acceptance.

Some political stakeholders argue that limiting the contest to one senatorial district would unfairly prevent other qualified aspirants from seeking the people’s mandate.

The disagreement has also produced concrete political opposition.

Interests from Nasarawa North have challenged the proposed zoning arrangement, showing that there is no complete agreement across the state on the issue.

A political consultative forum in Nasarawa North had earlier advocated for Nasarawa-Eggon Local Government Area to produce the governor in 2027.

Such positions demonstrate that zoning cannot simply be regarded as a settled agreement.

The critical question is whether voters will regard rotational fairness as sufficiently important to outweigh other factors when deciding who should govern the state.

Wadada takes zoning argument into contest

Wadada enters the race with a number of significant political advantages.

He is the candidate of the ruling APC, originates from Nasarawa West, has the backing of Governor Sule and benefits from the structure of the governing party.

His previous electoral performance also gives him an established political profile.

In the 2023 Nasarawa West senatorial election, Wadada contested under the Social Democratic Party, SDP, and defeated the APC candidate.

He later returned to the APC before securing its nomination for the 2027 governorship election.

His political history adds another dimension to his candidacy.

Wadada has previously demonstrated that he can win an election outside the APC platform, while his current position gives him access to the structure of the ruling party.

His supporters can therefore argue that the zoning arrangement has produced a candidate with both a personal political base and the backing of the incumbent administration.

The governorship contest, however, presents a considerably larger challenge.

Winning in Nasarawa West alone will not guarantee victory across Nasarawa State.

Wadada will need to attract support across the state’s different geographical, ethnic and religious constituencies.

The real strength of the zoning argument will therefore depend on whether voters outside Nasarawa West accept the district’s claim and are willing to support its candidate.

Ombugadu returns for another battle

The major challenger to the APC succession plan is the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, candidate, David Emmanuel Ombugadu.

Ombugadu is seeking another opportunity to occupy Government House after contesting the governorship in both 2019 and 2023.

His performance in the 2023 election established him as one of the most prominent opposition figures in Nasarawa politics.

Governor Sule was declared the winner with 347,209 votes, while Ombugadu received 283,016 votes.

The result subsequently led to a lengthy legal dispute.

The Nasarawa State Governorship Election Petition Tribunal initially overturned Sule’s victory and declared Ombugadu the winner, but the Court of Appeal later reversed the decision.

The Supreme Court eventually upheld Sule’s election in January 2024.

Irrespective of the legal battles that followed the 2023 poll, the election demonstrated the PDP’s capacity to mount a serious challenge against the APC.

Ombugadu now returns to a contest where his principal rival has the additional advantage of campaigning on the argument of rotational equity.

His task will therefore include persuading voters that the 2027 election should be determined mainly by the candidates and their programmes rather than their senatorial origins.

2023 provides a warning

The voting pattern recorded in Nasarawa during the 2023 general elections offers an important reason not to regard zoning as decisive.

Voters in the state showed that they could support different political parties depending on the particular election and the candidates involved.

In the presidential election, Labour Party candidate Peter Obi won Nasarawa with 191,361 votes.

He was followed by APC candidate Bola Tinubu with 172,922 votes, while PDP candidate Atiku Abubakar recorded 147,093 votes.

However, the APC retained the governorship weeks later.

The senatorial elections also demonstrated the fluid nature of voter preferences.

The APC failed to secure any of the state’s three senatorial seats during that election cycle, with the SDP winning two and the PDP taking the remaining seat.

Wadada himself secured the Nasarawa West senatorial seat under the SDP.

The results indicate that dominance by one political party does not necessarily produce identical voting patterns across different elections.

They also present a major question for 2027.

If voters in Nasarawa were willing to vote differently in presidential, governorship and National Assembly elections in 2023, it remains uncertain whether they will automatically follow an elite-backed zoning arrangement four years later.

More candidates in the race

The contest is not limited to the APC and PDP.

The Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, has released details of candidates nominated by political parties for the 2027 governorship election.

Among those listed alongside Wadada and Ombugadu are retired Major-General Nuhu Angbazo of the African Democratic Congress, ADC, and Jonathan Gaza Gbefwi of the Labour Party.

The SDP ticket has also become a source of controversy.

INEC published Musa Angbazo as the party’s candidate, while the camp of former Inspector-General of Police Mohammed Adamu has maintained that the former police chief is the legitimate candidate and will eventually appear on the ballot.

The dispute could carry wider implications because Adamu had previously opposed the decision to zone the APC ticket to Nasarawa West before leaving the ruling party.

The eventual resolution of the SDP controversy could therefore influence the broader electoral calculations.

With several candidates competing, opposition votes could become fragmented, potentially benefiting the APC.

On the other hand, a successful consolidation of opposition support could make the contest considerably more competitive for the ruling party.

What matters to voters?

The zoning debate will eventually face its biggest test at polling units across the state.

There is currently no sufficiently credible statewide opinion poll establishing that zoning is the single most important consideration for Nasarawa voters ahead of 2027.

Different categories of voters are likely to have different priorities.

While some may place security at the top of their concerns, others could focus more on employment, agriculture, infrastructure, education, the economy or the performance of the outgoing administration.

Ethnic identity, religion, party loyalty, community interests and the personal qualities of individual candidates could also influence voter decisions.

A farmer in Akwanga may approach the election differently from a trader in Keffi.

Similarly, a civil servant in Lafia may assess the candidates differently from a young voter in Karu.

This makes it difficult to determine the actual electoral weight of zoning.

An arrangement can enjoy broad support among political leaders without necessarily becoming the decisive factor for ordinary voters.

Can Sule deliver his preferred successor?

Another major issue will be whether Governor Sule can successfully transfer his political influence to Wadada.

Nigeria’s political history contains examples of governors who successfully installed their preferred successors, as well as instances where voters rejected the succession plans promoted by incumbents.

Sule’s endorsement gives Wadada access to the advantages associated with the incumbent administration and the APC political structure.

But political endorsements alone do not determine election results.

The governor and the APC will need to convince voters that Wadada represents both fairness in power distribution and continuity in governance.

Opposition parties, meanwhile, are likely to present the election as a choice between individual candidates and programmes rather than an endorsement of an elite succession plan.

The competing narratives could become a major feature of the campaign.

Is Nasarawa West really next?

For supporters of zoning, the argument is relatively simple.

Nasarawa West produced Abdullahi Adamu from 1999 to 2007.

Power then remained in Nasarawa South for 12 years under Doma and Al-Makura before moving to Nasarawa North, where Sule will have completed eight years by 2027.

Based on that sequence, zoning advocates argue that fairness demands a return of power to the West.

Those opposed to the arrangement can counter that democratic elections do not operate according to an automatic rotational timetable.

Every candidate who meets the constitutional and electoral requirements has the right to seek office regardless of senatorial district.

Ultimately, the influence of zoning will depend more on political acceptance than legal obligation.

If enough voters believe Nasarawa West has a legitimate claim to the governorship, the argument could become one of Wadada’s strongest electoral advantages.

If the electorate does not accept that reasoning, however, zoning may have limited influence beyond internal party calculations.

APC faces unity test

The ruling party also has an internal challenge to overcome.

The process that produced Wadada did not enjoy unanimous support among all politicians who sought the APC ticket.

The party must now determine whether the grievances generated during the succession contest have been sufficiently addressed to enable it to enter the general election as a united organisation.

In a closely fought election, internal divisions can have serious consequences.

The 2023 governorship contest demonstrated that the margin between the APC and PDP could be narrow enough for defections, protest votes and voter apathy to influence the outcome.

For Wadada, securing the APC ticket was therefore only the beginning.

He must now bring supporters of defeated aspirants into his campaign while expanding his appeal beyond traditional APC supporters.

Ombugadu’s third attempt

Ombugadu faces an equally significant political challenge.

After two previous attempts, the PDP candidate enters the 2027 contest with considerable name recognition and an established support network.

However, a third attempt also raises the question of whether he can expand his previous coalition enough to finally win the governorship.

His supporters are likely to present the election as another opportunity to complete what they consider an unfinished political project after his strong showing in 2023.

His opponents, however, will point to his previous defeats as evidence that voters have twice rejected his ambition.

More importantly, Ombugadu will have to deal directly with the zoning debate.

If the belief that power should return to Nasarawa West becomes widespread even beyond APC supporters, candidates from other senatorial districts could find themselves battling against both political parties and an established power-sharing narrative.

A defining election for Nasarawa

The 2027 governorship election could therefore have consequences beyond the immediate contest between Wadada, Ombugadu and the other candidates.

The result may determine whether Nasarawa’s informal system of political rotation remains influential in an increasingly competitive electoral environment.

A Wadada victory could be interpreted by zoning advocates as confirmation that Nasarawa West deserved another opportunity after nearly two decades outside Government House.

A victory by a candidate from another district would send a different message: that voters no longer consider geographical rotation sufficient reason to determine who should govern the state.

There is also the possibility that zoning will matter without becoming the decisive issue.

Voters could weigh geographical balance alongside competence, party affiliation, religion, ethnicity, governance performance and individual political appeal.

Such an outcome would make the election far more complex than a simple contest over rotational politics.

Voters will have the final say

Political leaders can negotiate, governors can endorse candidates and parties can make arguments based on fairness and equity.

None of these, however, guarantees an electoral victory.

The 2027 Nasarawa governorship election will ultimately be decided by voters across the state’s 13 local government areas.

For Wadada and the APC, the challenge will be turning the claim that it is Nasarawa West’s turn into actual votes across the state.

For Ombugadu and the other opposition candidates, the task will be convincing voters that the next governor should be chosen based on identity, capacity and vision rather than an informal rotational arrangement.

As Governor Sule prepares to leave office after eight years, Nasarawa is consequently heading into more than an ordinary succession contest.

The election could become a major test of one of the state’s longest-running political assumptions.

Will voters agree that power should return to Nasarawa West?

Or will they demonstrate that candidate preference can ultimately outweigh political rotation?

The political class may have its calculations, but the voters of Nasarawa will have the final word in 2027.

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