German economist, Joachim Klement, who correctly predicted the winners of the last three FIFA World Cups, has released his forecast for the 2026 tournament.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup is scheduled to begin in a week, with football icons Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo preparing for their historic sixth appearance at the competition.
Argentina, who lifted the trophy in Qatar in 2022, have been drawn alongside Algeria, Austria and Jordan in Group J for this edition. Portugal, captained by Cristiano Ronaldo, will compete against DR Congo, Uzbekistan and Colombia in Group K.
If both Argentina and Portugal finish top of their groups and progress through the opening knockout stages, they are expected to face each other in the quarter-finals.
According to Klement’s algorithm, Argentina and Portugal are projected to qualify for the knockout phase as group winners. In the round of 32, Portugal are tipped to face Ivory Coast, while Argentina are expected to battle Uruguay, with both sides predicted to advance.
In the round of 16, the German economist forecasts that Argentina will defeat Turkey through a goal scored by Lionel Messi. However, Klement claimed Portugal would only overcome Switzerland at that stage if Cristiano Ronaldo does not start the match.
With both teams expected to meet in the quarter-finals, Klement predicts Portugal will defeat Argentina after extra time to book a place in the semi-finals.
The algorithm also forecasts that Portugal will defeat England in the semi-finals before eventually losing to surprise champions, the Netherlands, in the final.
Klement’s 20-page report reportedly contains several other notable predictions. Unlike many football forecasts based solely on sporting performance, his model combines statistical, economic and demographic factors to determine the likelihood of success.
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