2027: Analyst Reveals What Peter Obi Must Do to Win More Support in North

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A Kano-based political analyst, Hassan Ibrahim, has said endorsement from northern youth groups alone cannot determine whether the presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), Peter Obi, will emerge victorious in the 2027 presidential election.

Ibrahim acknowledged the importance of engaging youth organisations as part of efforts to gain political acceptance but said it would be inaccurate to suggest that Obi cannot become president without the backing of a northern youth body.

He made the remarks in an exclusive interview with reporters while responding to comments by Amb. Abdul Danbature, National President of the Arewa Youth Assembly for Good Leadership, who argued that Obi could not win the presidency without northern youth support.

Danbature had faulted the former Anambra State governor for not consulting northern youth before declaring his presidential ambition and maintained that the region would favour a candidate who supported former President Muhammadu Buhari.

Ibrahim, however, maintained that although political consultation is important strategically, it is neither a constitutional nor mandatory requirement for presidential aspirants.

“Consultation in politics is not mandatory or constitutional, but it is very crucial and strategic. However, consultation with a northern youth group cannot be a yardstick for winning a presidential election because youth votes alone cannot determine who wins a presidential election in a country like Nigeria,” he said.

The analyst recalled that Obi had reached out to northern youth groups before the 2023 presidential election and received commendation from some of them, but still failed to win the poll.

He said this demonstrated that while consultations could enhance a candidate’s acceptability, they did not necessarily guarantee electoral success.

“In the 2023 presidential election, Peter Obi consulted the northern youth group, and they even commended him for consulting them before formally declaring his intention to run. But he went on to lose the election despite that consultation,” Ibrahim said.

According to him, northern votes are a significant factor in presidential elections because of the region’s population, but the backing of a single youth organisation should not be interpreted as the support of the entire northern region.

“The electoral history of Nigeria has shown that northern votes are a factor in winning the presidential election because of the population size. But that is entirely different from saying that a candidate needs the backing of the northern youth group before winning the election,” he said.

Ibrahim advised Obi to broaden his consultations across the North by engaging youth groups, traditional institutions, religious leaders, farmers and community stakeholders.

He said the former governor should personally communicate his policies to northerners while making deliberate efforts to understand their major concerns.

“For Peter Obi to improve his support base in northern Nigeria, he needs to engage, dialogue and consult with all the interest groups in the region,” he said.

The analyst further encouraged Obi to communicate with voters in local languages, particularly Hausa, to expand his reach across northern communities.

He explained that communicating in Hausa could help Obi explain his policies and campaign commitments more effectively while addressing unfavourable perceptions about him.

“More importantly, he should use the Hausa language as a means of communicating with the larger part of the North. That will help convey his message and campaign promises directly to his target voters,” Ibrahim said.

Ibrahim also said Obi must confront what he described as negative narratives and allegations circulating about him in some parts of the North.

He noted that some claims portray Obi as being hostile towards Muslims and northerners, including allegations that he demolished mosques and expelled law-abiding northerners from Anambra State while serving as governor.

He also cited allegations connecting Obi with the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) and claims that he would secure the release of its leader, Nnamdi Kanu, if elected president.

The analyst said Obi should respond directly to such allegations rather than allowing them to influence public perception.

“There are sponsored campaigns from opposition parties in the region aimed at blackmailing Peter Obi. He has to do much more to tackle the perceptions about him, including allegations that he destroyed Muslim worship centres and sent law-abiding northerners residing in his state back home during his tenure as governor,” he said.

“He also has to address the campaign that he is backing IPOB and the allegation that he intends to release its leader, Nnamdi Kanu, if he becomes president,” he added.

Ibrahim urged Obi to extend his engagement beyond politicians by developing relationships with traditional rulers, religious leaders and youth organisations across the region.

“He has to engage with the youth groups, traditional and religious leaders, sell himself to them and show them his real plan for the North,” Ibrahim said.

He also advised Obi to articulate a comprehensive strategy for tackling insecurity, particularly given its impact on agriculture and livelihoods in northern communities.

According to him, Obi should explain how his administration would safeguard farmers and promote agricultural production if elected.

“He needs to communicate to them his genuine intent and commitment to ending insecurity in the North when he becomes president. He should also reveal his plans for farmers and explain how he intends to provide adequate support to northerners who are largely farmers and depend on farming to feed themselves and earn a living,” he said.

Ibrahim said a well-defined security and agricultural programme could help Obi win the confidence of voters facing insecurity and economic challenges.

He further argued that Obi needs to address the perception in the North that he is predominantly a southern or Christian candidate.

According to him, Obi’s strong showing in the South-East during the 2023 election contributed to the belief among some northerners that his political ambition is largely regional.

“His performance in the South-East in 2023 has created a perception among people in the North that he is principally a southern candidate. Therefore, Peter Obi needs to demonstrate through people, policies and presence that he is building a genuinely Nigerian political project,” Ibrahim said.

The analyst said Obi’s campaign organisation should demonstrate Nigeria’s diversity through its blueprint, spokespersons, policy team and grassroots mobilisation.

“His campaign blueprint, spokespersons, policy team and grassroots supporters should clearly reflect a Nigerian project. To improve his performance in the North, Obi should intentionally establish himself as a national candidate and not a regional or religious candidate,” he said.

Ibrahim also encouraged Obi to involve respected northern political and community figures in his coalition and campaign structure to strengthen his relationship with voters in the region.

He said such a move would reinforce the message that Obi’s presidential ambition extends beyond the South-East and is not tied to any particular religious group.

The analyst stressed that Obi’s difficulty in the North is therefore not merely about obtaining the endorsement of a particular youth organisation but securing widespread political acceptance.

He said the former governor must maintain a visible presence in northern communities, engage different constituencies and offer practical solutions to challenges confronting the region.

Ibrahim also advocated a credible economic and security agenda specifically tailored to the North and focused on the concerns of ordinary residents.

“Lastly, he should have in place a credible Northern Economic and Security Agenda,” he said.

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