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Nigeria’s recent release of rebased Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures, showing a decrease in inflation from 32.5% in December 2024 to 24.5% in January 2025, has sparked predictions of significant changes in the upcoming rebased Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures. The last GDP rebasing occurred in 2014, using 2010 as the base year. Given the nine-year gap, it’s reasonable to expect substantial shifts in the structure of the Nigerian economy.
According to experts, “GDP rebasing is essential to reflect current economic realities.” When Nigeria rebased its economy in 2014, the reported GDP increased significantly. This time around, experts predict a likely increase in GDP size, driven by the inclusion of new sectors like fintech, e-commerce, and digital services.
“The economy may appear larger, but this doesn’t necessarily translate to increased economic prosperity,” says an expert. However, the rebasing exercise will provide a more accurate picture of Nigeria’s economy.
Other expected outcomes include sectoral shifts, with technology, telecommunications, and entertainment sectors gaining prominence, while agriculture and oil & gas may see reduced contributions. Informal sector activities will likely be better captured, and economic indicators such as debt-to-GDP ratio and per capita income may improve.
As Olodo, a public commentator based in Abuja, notes, “Rebasing will provide a clearer economic picture, but it’s crucial to manage public expectations and communicate the benefits effectively.” The real impact of rebasing depends on how policymakers utilize the new data to drive economic reforms, improve employment, and tackle inflation.
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The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has announced the commencement of the GDP and CPI rebasing exercise, aligning with the United Nations Statistical Commission’s recommendation for a five-year rebasing cycle.
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