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A political analyst in Kano, Hassan Ibrahim, has stated that voters in the state have a long-standing tradition of voting out incumbent leaders.

He warned that the 2027 governorship election in Kano State could follow a similar political pattern.

Ibrahim made the remarks in an exclusive interview with ZINGTIE while reacting to the emergence of Aminu Abdussalam as the governorship candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress, NDC, ahead of the 2027 general elections.

According to him, although incumbency often provides political advantage in Nigeria, Kano politics remains different from many other states.

“In Kano politics, one cannot say because someone is an incumbent, he will automatically win. Kano people are used to defeating incumbents. If they feel another candidate is better, they can vote him out,” he said.

Consensus strategy prevented internal crisis in NDC – Ibrahim

Ibrahim described the NDC’s adoption of consensus in selecting candidates as a strategic move that helped the party avoid internal crisis.

Speaking on the emergence of the party’s candidates, he said the decision to embrace consensus instead of conducting primaries played a major role in preserving unity within the party.

According to him, the party was still relatively new and had earlier experienced leadership disagreements before stabilising under its current structure.

“This is because the party is new, and when Kwankwaso recently joined the party, they had a dispute in terms of the chairmanship. Kwankwaso was able to settle that issue, and that was a very big achievement in the first place,” he explained.

He stated that the party had three available options in selecting candidates ahead of the 2027 elections.

“Going into the process of picking candidates, they had two options: either direct primaries or indirect primaries, and then they have consensus as the third method,” he said.

He noted that the leadership deliberately opted for consensus in order to avoid internal divisions.

“So Kwankwaso made a very good decision whereby they opted to go for consensus because the party needed to avoid internal fight. If they didn’t avoid internal fight, that could have the potential to derail the party ahead of the 2027 election, and that would have been a catastrophic mistake,” he added.

Ibrahim said the consensus arrangement was carried out peacefully and without major disagreements.

“The consensus exercise was smoothly conducted and was free from rancour,” he said.

According to him, the outcome came as a surprise to many political observers.

“For many viewers, it came as a surprise because they didn’t expect the consensus to go this way,” he added.

The analyst further explained that the process became more complicated because of the influx of defectors from other political parties, including members of the ruling APC in Kano State.

He noted that many of the defectors are influential politicians with strong political structures.

“Kwankwaso came into the party (NDC) with his Kwankwasiyya movement, and there were a lot of defectors from their former political parties, including the APC in Kano, who defected to the NDC,” he said.

Among those mentioned were former deputy governor and 2023 APC governorship candidate, Nasir Yusuf Gawuna, former senator and ex-governor Kabiru Ibrahim Gaya, alongside other political figures such as Batayya, Aminu Suleiman Goro, and Mustapha Bala Dawaki.

He described them as major political figures whose ambitions needed careful management.

Ibrahim said one of the major achievements of the consensus process was convincing several aspirants to step down for others.

“So for Kwankwaso to be able to manage those ambitions and egos of the defectors and settle that issue is a very big achievement,” he said.

He added that many of the politicians initially pursued personal ambitions, including senatorial and other elective positions, but eventually stepped down in the interest of party unity.

“Succeeding in convincing a lot of them to step down to contest is highly commendable from the NDC and its leader in Kano, in person of Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso,” he said.

NDC’s governorship candidate experienced, known to Kano voters

Speaking on Abdussalam’s candidacy, Ibrahim described him as experienced and widely recognised in Kano politics.

He said Abdussalam’s political background has made him a familiar figure across the state.

“Comrade Abdulsalam is highly qualified. He has served as local government chairman, commissioner, and deputy governor. His name is not new in Kano,” he said.

The analyst explained that Abdussalam’s experience across different levels of government has contributed to his political visibility.

He recalled that Abdussalam previously contested alongside Governor Yusuf, making him familiar to many voters in Kano State.

“He was part of the earlier political arrangement with Governor Yusuf on a joint ticket in 2019, where he contested alongside Governor Yusuf, and they lost. Also, in 2023, they won the election under the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP), where he became deputy governor. This made him a familiar face to many voters in Kano,” Ibrahim added.

According to him, Abdussalam’s experience in local government administration, state executive responsibilities, and party politics positions him as a strong contender ahead of the election.

2027 governorship race will be highly competitive

Despite acknowledging Abdussalam’s political credentials, Ibrahim stated that the 2027 governorship contest between Abdussalam and Yusuf would be highly competitive.

He explained that although incumbency usually carries advantages due to access to state resources and structures, Kano voters often defy political expectations.

“To say he will defeat the incumbent is difficult. It is a 50-50 situation. The incumbency factor is there, but Kano voters can decide otherwise,” he said.

“In Kano politics, you cannot rely only on incumbency. The people are very decisive. If they feel another candidate is better, they will vote the incumbent out,” he explained.

He maintained that Kano voters have historically shown the willingness to remove sitting governors despite the benefits attached to incumbency.

“Anything can happen. The election will be very tight because both candidates know each other’s strengths and weaknesses,” he added.

Ibrahim further stated that political dynamics in the state, including the influence of party leaders and public sentiment, would significantly shape the outcome of the election.

According to him, the Kwankwasiyya movement still commands strong influence, as many supporters traditionally align with the direction of its leader.

“Kwankwaso can sell any candidate in Kano. The Kwankwasiyya followers usually go with his direction on who to support,” he said.

He also noted that some voters believe Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf betrayed his former political ally, a sentiment he said could influence voting decisions.

“There are issues where some voters feel Abba Kabir Yusuf has betrayed his former boss. That sentiment is in the minds of some people, and it may affect how they vote, this is an edge for Abdussalam Gwarzo,” he added.

The analyst further noted that there is a large number of undecided voters in Kano State who could determine the final outcome of the election.

“There are also undecided voters. People who are not yet sure where they will go. That group will be very important in deciding the election,” he said.

“Anything can happen, but on acceptability, yes, Gwarzo will get acceptance. For Abdussalam to defeat gov Yusuf, yes, it is possible, and yes, it is not possible. Only time will tell.”

Speaking on possible internal disagreements within the party, Ibrahim dismissed fears of any serious conflict.

“I don’t think there is significant bickering. The process was largely accepted by members, and the choices made were appropriate,” he said.

NDC faces slim chance in Kano governorship race – Kabiru Ojo

Another political analyst, Kabiru Ojo, has stated that the Nigeria Democratic Congress, NDC, faces a difficult path in the 2027 Kano governorship election.

He attributed this to internal divisions and shifting political alliances across the state.

Ojo made the observation during an exclusive interview with ZINGTIE while analysing the prospects of major political actors ahead of the next general elections.

According to him, the emergence of Comrade Aminu Abdussalam Gwarzo as the NDC governorship candidate through consensus, alongside recent political realignments, could weaken the party ahead of the election.

“So as for the NDC chances of winning the gubernatorial election, it is very narrow,” he said.

He explained that Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso’s political structure has become divided, with some supporters remaining with Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf while others stayed in the ADC.

“Kwankwaso already split most of his supporters. Some moved along with Governor Abba Yusuf, and after going to ADC, some refused to leave ADC to NDC. So this has divided the Kwankwasiyya movement,” he said.

Ojo also argued that the defection of Nasiru Yusuf Gawuna into the NDC altered expectations among his supporters, many of whom believed he would emerge as the governorship candidate.

“When Gawuna came to NDC, most of his supporters were thinking he would be presented as the flag bearer. But unfortunately, he was projected to Kano Central Senate ticket,” he said.

He added that the development created dissatisfaction among sections of Gawuna’s supporters and parts of the Kwankwasiyya movement.

“Some of Gawuna’s supporters are not happy, and even some Kwankwasiyya members are not ready to support Gwarzo because they feel he is not influential enough,” Ojo said.

According to him, some party supporters believe Gwarzo lacks the political influence required to secure victory compared to some other political figures in the state.

He argued that Kwankwaso’s previous electoral victory was achieved through the support of several political stakeholders across the senatorial districts.

“What made Kwankwaso win Gawuna last time was not only Kwankwaso. It included others in the senatorial district like Kawu Sumaila and others. Now most of them are with Abba in APC,” he said.

He, however, maintained that Gwarzo’s emergence was the outcome of a consensus process within the party.

Ojo insisted that the selection of Gwarzo was not imposed but was collectively agreed upon by party stakeholders.

“So choosing Gwarzo was not an imposition. It was a collective agreement by all members of the NDC party,” he added.

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