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As the 2027 presidential election draws closer, concerns are mounting, particularly within opposition circles, over repeated threats allegedly issued by some prominent members of the All Progressives Congress, APC, against Nigerians who oppose President Bola Tinubu and the ruling party.

From Borno State to Kuje in the Federal Capital Territory, FCT, and from Osun State to Ebonyi State, a recurring pattern appears to be emerging.

APC figures, including governors, commissioners and other government officials, have issued statements that critics say amount to threats of violence, exclusion, eviction and political retaliation.

Although the language differs from one location to another, the underlying message appears similar: support the APC or risk facing consequences.

The Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, has scheduled January 16, 2027, for the presidential and National Assembly elections, while the governorship and State House of Assembly elections are fixed for February 6, 2027.

Campaigns for the governorship and State Assembly elections have not yet commenced, but those for the presidential and National Assembly contests began on August 19.

With only a few weeks into a campaign period expected to run for more than four months, concerns are growing over what some observers consider increasingly hostile political rhetoric.

Opposition parties, members of the public and organisations including Amnesty International have taken notice of the development.

Some opposition politicians have also approached security agencies to draw attention to threats allegedly directed at their candidates.

The trend

In Maiduguri, the Borno State capital, the Commissioner for Youth and Sports Development, Sainna Buba, recently warned that residents who refused to support President Tinubu’s re-election could have their fingers cut off.

Buba made the statement during the launch of a campaign organised by the City Boy Movement, a political support group backing President Tinubu and his administration.

He warned those opposed to the APC against challenging the ruling party, saying, “Whoever shows us a finger, we are ready to cut off his fingers. Anyone who shows us a finger again would have the finger broken.”

The commissioner also appeared to link access to government benefits with political loyalty when he stated that those supporting the government would receive benefits while those who refused would be punished.

“Those who followed the government would enjoy the honey, while those who refused would be flogged,” he added.

The comments drew widespread attention after the video circulated online.

Amnesty International Nigeria subsequently condemned the remarks, describing them as reckless and unlawful and calling for an urgent investigation.

Buba later responded to the controversy by claiming that his remarks had been taken out of context.

In another incident involving a viral video in August, the Chairman of Kuje Area Council in the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja, Samuel Danjuma Shekwolo, told residents that they either had to support the APC or leave the area council.

“I have said in my area council, it’s either you’re doing APC or you leave the area council,” he said.

Shekwolo also warned residents against attempting to challenge him during the election, adding, “It is either you are with us, or you are not here.”

The statement attracted condemnation from the National Human Rights Commission, NHRC, which described the remarks as intimidating and contrary to constitutional and democratic principles.

The Commission called for Shekwolo’s arrest and prosecution and urged the police, Department of State Services, DSS, and INEC to investigate the comments and take steps to protect residents from possible harassment, profiling and disenfranchisement ahead of the 2027 elections.

In Ebonyi State, similar concerns have been raised over remarks attributed to Governor Francis Nwifuru.

In June, the Ebonyi Political Think-Tank, a civil society coalition, accused the governor of threatening the opposition’s governorship candidate during a political rally.

The group subsequently notified the police, DSS and Nigerian Army, warning that the governor should be held responsible for any harm that might result from the alleged threats.

More recently, while speaking to newly sworn-in council chairmen, Nwifuru reportedly repeated his position that no political seat would be handed over to the opposition and that opposition activities would not be tolerated.

While some may argue that opposition parties are also guilty of using threatening rhetoric, concerns remain that the ruling party has a greater responsibility to set the standard for political conduct.

Even where opposition groups engage in inflammatory statements, critics argue that the ruling party should help restore order by ensuring that existing laws are enforced.

The law, however, remains clear that citizens should not face punishment simply because of their political choices in a democratic society.

Lessons from the 2023 polls

The 2023 general election recorded at least 39 deaths, according to compiled media and police reports.

Those killed included police officers, party supporters, ordinary voters and an electoral worker who was reportedly struck by a stray bullet.

Among the victims was Oyibo Chukwu, the Labour Party’s senatorial candidate for Enugu East, who was shot and set ablaze by unidentified gunmen days before the presidential election.

Peter Obi, who was the Labour Party’s presidential candidate at the time, publicly mourned Chukwu.

The period leading to the 2023 election also witnessed numerous incidents of violence targeting candidates, political supporters and electoral officials.

Researchers at the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project documented dozens of such incidents in the months preceding the election.

Atrocities Watch Africa and Global Rights reported at least 30 killings and 15 abductions involving candidates and politically exposed persons in January 2023 alone, in addition to six attacks on campaign rallies.

Before the election, Alhassan Ado Doguwa, who was then the APC House of Representatives Majority Leader for Kano, warned that people who refused to support the party would face consequences.

Doguwa was later charged in connection with election-day violence that resulted in the deaths of three of his constituents, although he was never convicted.

Off-cycle elections, which are conducted outside the national electoral calendar and are generally regarded as easier to secure, have also recorded incidents of violence.

The 2019 governorship election in Kogi State was marred by killings and ballot-box snatching, while a PDP women’s leader was reportedly killed and her home burnt by thugs loyal to the state’s ruling party.

The Edo and Ondo governorship elections the following year were largely peaceful, with peace agreements signed by political rivals contributing to the calmer atmosphere.

However, by November 2023, concerns over electoral violence resurfaced as Kogi, Imo and Bayelsa States conducted governorship elections.

The Centre for Democracy and Development described those elections as being affected by vote-buying and pockets of violence despite the deployment of large numbers of security personnel.

The recent Osun governorship election has also generated fresh allegations, with the PDP and former President Goodluck Jonathan separately alleging that the APC brought thugs from other states.

The Nigeria Civil Society Situation Room estimates that 626 people died in violence connected to the 2019 election cycle.

For the 2015 elections, the organisation put the figure at 106 deaths.

Observer groups have pointed to the figures as an indication of a troubling trajectory in Nigeria’s electoral environment.

What lies ahead

The presidential and National Assembly campaigns are expected to become more intense by November, while campaigns for the governorship elections are expected to follow shortly afterward.

Political observers, however, are already expressing concern over the language emerging from some political quarters.

Analysts have identified several areas that could require particular attention based on recent developments.

Ebonyi State is among those being closely watched, following allegations that the governor has twice used language considered threatening by opposition figures.

Osun State is another area of concern, as tensions between the APC and Accord have remained high following the August election.

The North-East, particularly Borno State, is also attracting attention.

The commissioner’s controversial comments remain unretracted, while the region’s existing insecurity could make political intimidation particularly significant for voters who may already be reluctant to participate in elections.

The Federal Capital Territory has also joined the list following the controversy surrounding the Kuje Area Council chairman.

Developments in Kogi, Imo, Bayelsa and Osun also suggest that states conducting off-cycle elections remain vulnerable to political violence despite their relatively smaller size and stronger security presence.

On August 18, Nigeria’s major political parties signed a National Peace Accord committing themselves to peaceful and issue-based campaigns ahead of the 2027 elections.

However, several of the incidents highlighted in this report occurred after the peace agreement was signed.

The police have also commenced at least one formal investigation into the comments attributed to the Borno commissioner.

The Osun State Police Command separately questioned Senator Fadahunsi over another matter.

Neither investigation has so far produced a publicly announced outcome.

In Enugu State, reports have also emerged of attacks on opposition meetings and rallies, with casualties recorded in some of the incidents.

The development has placed the state among the areas attracting attention ahead of the 2027 elections.

What the law says

Lawyer Marcellus Onah has provided an explanation of the legal provisions applicable to statements capable of triggering electoral violence.

He noted that the controversial and inflammatory remarks are being made at a time when Nigeria has specific laws regulating threats and violence during election campaigns.

According to him, the Electoral Act 2026, which repealed the Electoral Act 2022, came into effect in February 2026 and retained as well as strengthened provisions governing political campaigns.

“According to Section 97(1) of the Electoral Act 2026, a political party, candidate, aspirant, person or group of persons must not ‘directly or indirectly threaten any person with the use of force or violence during any political campaign’ to compel that person or another person to support or refrain from supporting a political party or candidate.

“It added that such a person, candidate or aspirant found guilty under the provision could face a maximum fine of N5 million or 12 months’ imprisonment, while any political party convicted of the offence faces a N10 million fine for a first offence and N2 million for subsequent offences.

“The law also addresses inflammatory campaign language. Section 96(2) prohibits abusive, intemperate, slanderous or base language, including insinuations or innuendoes designed or likely to provoke violent reactions or emotions during political campaigns.

“This means that where a statement amounts to a threat of force or violence intended to influence political support, the Electoral Act provides a specific offence.

“Similarly, Section 40 of the Nigeria 1999 Constitution, as amended, guarantees every person the right to freely associate with others, including the right to form or belong to a political party,” he said.

Onah further pointed out that the Constitution also provides that:

“Every person shall be entitled to assemble freely and associate with other persons, and in particular he may form or belong to any political party, trade union or any other association for the protection of his interests.”

Despite these legal provisions, none of the individuals connected to the Borno, Kuje, Osun and Ebonyi controversies has so far been punished, raising questions among Nigerians about whether the 2027 elections could witness increased violence and whether such developments could ultimately affect the credibility of the polls.

The coming months are therefore expected to determine whether the inflammatory rhetoric being heard today will translate into violence during the election period or whether political actors will succeed in keeping the contest focused on votes and policy rather than threats.

The central issue remains that citizens should not be punished because of their political choices in a democracy.

There are also growing calls for security agencies, particularly the police, to take threats made against citizens and political opponents seriously by investigating, arresting and prosecuting individuals or groups found to have violated the law ahead of the elections.

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